Climate Change: With the elections of 8th February, the 16th national assembly came into being in Pakistan. The leading parties have highlighted their political manifesto on skyrocketing debt, inflation, poor governance, and corruption. One pressing issue remains absent from most of the agendas which is climate change. This has proven to be an existential threat for the country. Pakistan is prone to threats related to climate change, as the floods of 2022 left over 33 million people in dire humanitarian crisis with an estimated economic loss of $15.2 billion. This paper will address key issues related to climate change and how to reduce its impact on environmental, economic and human security of Pakistan. Focusing on the need to create strong policies to mitigate climate change, building a climate-positive narrative and climate awareness among masses. This paper will also highlight the major areas affected, which are still prone to ecological threats and provide a framework which calls for a pre-disaster management and readiness. Set of recommendations for pre-mitigation of climate related threats, which include multi-stakeholder engagement, reconstruction, and sustainable development are also provided in the paper.
Keywords: Climate Change, Humanitarian Crisis, Mitigation, Floods
Introduction:
Pakistan emits less than 1 percent of the planet-warming gases, yet the effects of climate change are of severe nature for the country. Disruption and humanitarian crisis on one side, the country is an agricultural economy and such extreme conditions have also affected the food production of the country. For instance, the rice production estimate is lowered to 6 million tons, which is the lowest after 2012-2013. Housing, livestock, transport, and communication sectors suffered estimated damage of USD 12.6 billion. 70 percent of damage happened to Sindh, followed by Baluchistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab. It’s been two years since the floods and the devastation is still unfolding, with the challenge of rehabilitation of the victims at top, and the provision of food and healthcare to the affected population. The major issue is the displaced and affected population, and areas affected by the floods are from the peripheries where the government is unable to provide basic necessities. The already vulnerable communities after the floods have been pushed into a more devastating position with no shelter, lack of food and medicine, lack of clean drinking water. Out of all, women and children are most vulnerable to climate change, and still the long-term implications of the floods are yet to unfold.
Climate crisis:
It is not the first time that Pakistan has faced severe consequences due to climate crisis, floods are longstanding problems which we are unable to mitigate. Taking into account the floods of 2010, 2016, 2022 and 2023, which left the country devastated. While climate change is an inherent phenomenon and the global emissions are increasing daily which means that we are still prone to various threats, taken into account Pakistan’s geography and topography. Pakistan is part of Third pole, home to 7000 glaciers. By 2018, more than 3000 glacier lakes have formed due to glacier melting and in 2022 1/3rd of the country were submerged due to flash floods caused by rain in monsoon. It is to be noted that these floods are a signal of our depleting water resources which can be a matter of survival for the country in future. The prevention of climate risks in the future will majorly depend upon pre-disaster mitigation and adaptability to new dynamics.
Worst Hit Areas:
According to a report by National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) as of 15 September 2022, 1500 people lost their lives and 12800 injured. 390 bridges, 1817550 houses and 12718 km of roads were destroyed along with 927543 livestock dead. These are the numbers estimated at the early stages of post-flood situation, the long-term implications are still unfolding in the form of displacement of people, deadly disease outbreaks, food shortage because of crops destroyed and general public security concerns.
Sindh: With a record-breaking rainfall of 703.2 mm, 426% above normal rate, Sindh was the most affected region. These floods left 823 dead, 8422 injured, affected almost 12,356,860 people and displaced 7,383,023 from their homes. Subsequently, Larkana, Khairpur, Kamber Shahdadkot, Mirpurkhas and Sanghar were some of most affected districts.
Baluchistan: 60% of houses destroyed during floods of 2022 were in Baluchistan. The under-development and vulnerability of the province, coupled with climate related disasters had left Baluchistan in dire need of rehabilitation and reconstruction. As per the World Food Program, 1500 people lost their lives in floods across Pakistan. Among each 10 setbacks, three were in Baluchistan, which recorded the largest number of misfortunes contrasted with other areas. The floods likewise caused huge harm to farming areas, with more than 2,000 sections of land in Lasbela region alone being impacted, prompting the annihilation of harvests and vegetation. 18 districts were affected out of which kharan, Lasbella and wasuk were severely hit. Baluchistan receives the lowest annual rainfall in Pakistan, the region is dry. Arid weather and droughts are normal. Rain and floods of this magnitude are the manifestation of alarming climate crisis.
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: Around 4350490 people were directly affected, with 369 dead, 21,238 livestock lost, 1575 km of roads and 109 bridges destroyed as a result of the devastating floods which happened due to glacier melt, extreme precipitation, floods, droughts, and sea-level rise. 17 districts were hit by the floods out of which 6 districts were severely affected, including Swat, Dir-Upper, Charsadda, Nowshehra, Tank and D.I Khan.
Punjab: The heavy monsoon spell flooded Sutlej River causing huge agricultural and human losses. The destruction of standing crops was estimated around 900,000 in south Punjab, while 73 people were left dead and 1500 livestock perished in the flood. These numbers depict the direct causalities, the indirect deaths, which happened due to malnutrition and disease in the aftermath of the floods, are not documented.
Gilgit Baltistan: A mountainous region with majority of Pakistan’s glaciers also faced severe floods and landslides resulting from heavy monsoon spells. Flash floods in the region due to glacier meltdown and heavy rainfall had caused loss of 14 lives and 22 injuries, along with major disruption of trade routes. 22 power houses, 49 roads, 78 potable water supply lines and over 500 irrigation water channels have been demolished and estimated loses are worth 7 billion rupees.
These were the numbers only from the early aftermath of the disaster. They have also had deep impacts on the human security dynamics in Pakistan, with women and children left most vulnerable. The spread of disease, food insecurity and health disruption are the primary issues. A huge question of rehabilitation and reconstruction rests on the shoulders of policy makers and government. As Pakistan is a developing nation with scarce resources, floods are a deadly aspect for the peripheries because of vulnerabilities of these areas. Natural disasters have left these parts destroyed both human security and economic prospects.
Pre-Disaster Management:
We know that climate vulnerabilities are inherent in Pakistan and having said that, it is important to highlight the lack of awareness and collaboration between policy makers, media, civil society, NGOs and UN agencies etc. While focus is on post-disaster reconstruction, a more proactive stance of preventive disaster planning and adaptability should be at the priority of policy makers here. Furthermore, a collaborative framework is needed in which all these stakeholders are well-coordinated and ready to deal with instances which are sudden, so as to mitigate them. As it is evident that the Northern part of Pakistan which includes Upper Punjab, KPK, AJK and GB are vulnerable to threats like glacier melting and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), landslides, and changes in precipitation patterns, while the southern part including Sindh, Baluchistan and parts of Punjab faces heatwaves, sea level rise, floods, cyclones, desertification and land degradation. These are the threats which are currently faced by the country, and due to this we are running towards a much greater issue, which will unfold in near future; water scarcity and droughts.
Framework for Disaster risk management:
While sufficient work is being done towards climate action, the issue comes in regards to coordination between stakeholders in times of crisis. For instance, majority of the governmental support is not available to the peripheries as they are away and underdeveloped, and if NGOs are working there then they are restrained by the lack of adequate supply and manpower to mitigate such threats alone. This framework will build ways for climate change stakeholders to collaborate and mitigate the threats in a more robust way. In order for this framework to work, collaboration and coordination among these organizations is necessary, with each organization working on different aspects of climate change and capacity building. Providing support to these organizations under government can enhance climate action in the peripheral areas as well as help in reducing costs of the programs to counter climate related threats. WWF Pakistan, ACTED Pakistan, Forest, wildlife and fisheries department, Environmental protection agencies EPAs, and WAPDA are organizations already working for environmental conservation and balanced growth. So, rather than launching new programs for environmental conservation and sustainable development, capacity-building and collaboration among these organizations on a governmental/policy level can enhance the action against these threats with given resources.
Climate Change Report of last decade https://securitylense.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Flood-analysis-of-last-decade-2000-2023-Pakistan.pdf
Fig 1.1;This figure shows different NGO’s, INGO’s, Governmental organizations, and UN agencies which work on different aspects of climate change.
Recommendations:
· Coordination between Governmental Organizations, NDOs, INGOs and Search and Rescue Bodies.
· Proactive stance towards Pre-Disaster Management.
· Awareness and Capability strengthening within communities which are most vulnerable to climate related threats.
· Youth Participation in climate change advocacy and Policy Making.
· Data sharing and capacity-building between stakeholders.
· A Coordination body should be formed to help the stakeholders to mitigate threats more efficiently.
Conclusion:
Floods of 2022 cost Pakistan more than $30 billion in damages and economic losses, caused more than 1,700 deaths and displaced more than 8 million people, with on-going post-disaster effects on the country. The threat of extreme events due to climate change is still there, an inherent threat that needs to be addressed or else it can become detrimental for the country. Proactive stance and Capacity building in these organizations, and coordination between these organizations will help in mitigating these crises. In other words, top to bottom approach is needed. Since most of the affected areas were peripheries, and keeping in mind the scares resources, capacity-building and data-sharing between these organizations is crucial. Right now, our approach as a nation is post-disaster management, and post disaster management is costly and requires lots of resources. What we need is changing our approach from post-disaster management to pre-disaster mitigation. We have to make decisions keeping in mind that we are a developing nation and the resources are scarce.
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Editorial.
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