AUKUS was estabilsihed on 15th September 2021 between US, UK and AUSTRALIA signed a “trilateral security pact” called AUKUS. It focus is to counter growing dominance of China in the Asia Pacific. According to this agreement Australia will be provided nuclear powered submarines by its allies US and UK. This agreement has potential to change shape geopolitics, regional security, nonproliferation. It will also have an impact on Australia military capabilities. Moreover, this will have interesting impact on UK and EUROPE relations. On the one hand AUKUS is focusing on strengthening defense related technology. It focuses on cyber, Artificial intelligence and undersea capabilities.
KEY WORDS: geopolitics, strategic game, security dilemma, non-proliferation, collective security.
INTRODUCTION:
US hegemony in the global politics is very old. It starts after WWII. US emerged as dominant power after the war. It became strong economic, military and technological power. Moreover it has also developed the bomb so then it became truly a hegemon. US has maintain its status as superpower during the Cold war era. The only global rival of US at that time was the Soviet Union. But statistically they were not on similar level to US in term of economy, military and technology. They have never produced more than about half of US total national output. USSR does not have any effective alliance at that time. So it would be not wrong if we say that USSR had the strength to resist American hegemony, but cannot replace it. It had the Nuclear weapon and good space program, but still not enough. When the USSR finally dissolved in December 1991, US global hegemony was complete. Then there was no effective rival for US for global superpower. US enjoyed this role for decade without any serious challenge until 2001. After 9/11 US face new kind of threat which was harmful for global stability. Moreover the emergence of China and revival of Russia start new era of challenges for global leadership. During this period US has faced huge economic and military loss due its responsibility of global policeman. It is now widely accepted assumption among scholars of international relation that US hegemony is on decline.
Theoretical Framework:
The theory of collective security can be applied on the agreement of AUKUS. As in this all three member states see a common security concern that is China and join hands to counter it. China growing dominance has been cause of concern for US and all its allies. So in response they have decided to counter it collectively. In this there will be cooperation in military. Australia will be delivered nuclear submarines.
But there are certain concern to this agreement that if it is collective security deal than what about NATO and other European allies of US. They have been left behind as rise of China is also a security issue for France and other European countries. But they are not included in this pact, so collective security was not ensured of European allies rather they have been separated.
LITERATURE REVIEW:
The literature which I have used for my research is from both past era and contemporary additions to the topic. First I would like to mention about the book “INDO-PACIFIC EMPIRE: China, America and the contest for world pivotal region” by RORY MEDCALF HARDCOVER. This book is written prior to development of AUKUS but it provides great insight about geopolitics of indo pacific and US attempt to attain power in the region by countering china. In this book he mentions all the relevant players included in the indo pacific and their reason for participating. According to this literature US is only interested in the indo pacific to prevent china from achieving its goals. US estimation is that china is trying to become major power in international politics by dominating regional power points. INDIA is also part of contest in indo pacific and according to MEDCALF India is only for greatness, to become a major force in international politics. Japan is also present in the region. Its reason for participation is to regain the influence in regional affairs which it once used to have. Indonesia is there to get leverage. Australia is there for alliances building but it has becoming more important and after AUKUS its role is becoming more centered in the region. So each state sees it as necessary to have an influence in region to enhance national security. This literature also highlights the short comings of strategist working on ways to counter china. He argument that china will remain geo political challenge and idea of its exclusion is vague. Strategists must work for peaceful coexistence. They should think in term of competition and cooperation. Another good thing about the writer was that it not only focuses on history of the region but also provide insight about future events related to it. It emphasizes that what policies and strategies should US adopt in future to counter china’s emergence. Second study which I have included as literature in my research is an opinion article “AUKUS and future alliances in the indo pacific” by Dr. Jean-Loup Samaan. This article was written after the AUKUS development. In this article the author had discussed about AUKUS. What it is? He had divided his studies into three research questions. One question is about the role of UK and Australia. He highlights the factors that make UK and Australia to be a part of new strategic alliance with the US to counter china domination in this region. He highlights that Australia have change its stance on china as earlier in 2007 during QUAD dialogue Australia then Prime Minister RUDD withdraw from dialogue as they were not comfortable in being part of US competition with china and consider that it will affect their internal security. But during this decade the tension between Australia and China has increased drastically. So due to this Australia have adopted a strict approach towards china and is participating in alliances formed to counter china rise since last decade.
UK had also changed its approach towards China over the period. Initially UK also had good economic ties with china and tries to avoid US policy of aggression against China but recent development show change in strategies. PM BORIS JOHNSON ban on Huawei equipment access to UK 5g network which they initially allowed. And after joining AUKUS UK’s new strategy towards china is clearly visible which is following the US approach.
This article also mention about major foreign policy of Biden administration which I have also stated in my research that effect of new US government on foreign policy and how will their approach towards china differ from Trump’s administration.
In this article writer also highlight about nuclear domain of this alliance. It is very important point and it is very much in accordance with my research paper as I have also highlighted about the effect of nuclear submarines deals on the international environment, the vulnerability it creates about nuclear weapon use. These factors are major cause of concern as it will lead to catastrophic events.
One thing this article doesn’t focus much that I have later included in my research is the contribution to ARM RACE. The nuclear submarine deal will create security dilemma for china and it will contribute to arms race that will be threat to regional peace and stability.
Third article which I have used for research is “AUKUS, the future of western led geopolitical networks” by Julian Lindley-French. The good point about article is that it also highlights the France perspective as they have lost billions of dollars of deal. They have been part of US competition against china but this time they are left. He also suggests what France should do next and how to be involved in this again. One thing this article doesn’t specify that much is the role of NATO which is major part of my research paper.
What is NATO role and present situation? Does inclusion of Europe in this new strategic alliance had made it more effective? These are important points of my research which are not properly explained in the literature discusses here.
US HEGEMONIC COMPETITIONS WITH CHINA:
According to Chinese white paper China do not hold any ambition to become a HEGEMON. But during last few decade the rate at which China is rising have caused a serious concern for US. China had developed in all sectors economic, military, political as well social domain.
If we look in military perspective China is modernizing its military at strange moment of history. “The advanced Chinese defense capability has faded US military supremacy. China’s new anti-carrier weapons endanger U.S. force projection capabilities in the Western Pacific; its anti-satellite programs imperil U.S. global surveillance and communication capabilities; its growing operations in cyberspace menace U.S. government operations and the economy of the American homeland alike”. These are serious challenges not just to the American hegemony but to core U.S. interests. So these had led to trouble in US-CHINA relation. There are also chances of military confrontation.
QUAD
So as a result of this situation, rise of China and growing tension between US and China has resulted in US began to draw a response. QUAD is security dialogue composed of US, JAPAN, AUSTRALIA and INDIA [2]. It was formed in 2004. Actually it was cooperation among these countries during 2004 tsunami and its aim was to aid Japan in getting out of this difficult time. But later the agenda of this security dialogue transformed to cooperate to counter security, economic and health issues. They have intensifies their security cooperation with growing china rise. All countries have their interests and aims related to functioning of QUAD. China has also responded very aggressively and their relation with each member state of QUAD had worsened.
AUKUS
AUKUS is new pact between UK, AUSTRLIA and US. It is a security pact. This strategic partnership which include only English speaking anglo saxon is formed to counter China in the pacific region. It is newest development in international relation. Though there is no official statement that this pact is to deter china but its stand to reasons that it has been developed to end China rising dominance especially in the pacific. Under this deal US will share its military technology with UK and Australia. U.S and UK will provide nuclear powered submarine to Australia. This pact also ensures coordination in cyber, AI and undersea capabilities. So what are motives behind this security pact? Though they have not officially mention the threat which this new alliance will deal with but it is evident that it is to counter China in Indo Pacific. Over last several years Chinese dominance in the Pacific is increasing.
The Chinese footprint in the pacific has become so large and their assertive approach has raised major security concerns to nation which are strategically part of the Pacific Ocean. South Pacific is very important geographically and also has many development challenges. In last five years Chinese growth in the pacific is very fast and it causes concerns of Chinese ambitions. China has increased their marine research vessel in West Pacific. It raises concerns that it can collect oceanic data for both scientific as well as military purposes. Reports also suggest that China has deployed sensors that can detect US submarines movement. There are reports of China using its fishing fleets for military surveillance. Stated, “Speculation has also arisen that after resuming its diplomatic relations with Kiribati in September 2019, China may aim to reconstruct its satellite tracking station on Tarawa Island, which was constructed in 1997 and demolished in 2003 after the island country switched allegiance to Taiwan. The station had been used to monitor China’s space programs, including its first manned space flight. Some suspect it was also used to monitor US missile testing at the Reagan Test Site at the Kwajalein Atoll in the Marshall Islands”.
Chinese operational strategy in the Indo Pacific region involves anti access and area denial activities. It is military approach to prevent enemies from gaining access to territorial region (anti access) and deny their free movement in battlefield (area denial). For this they have developed aircrafts, submarines and missiles. This region is very significant and there is no doubt about that. It is important for both logistics and military force projection. So China’s growing dominance in the region has created security concerns. Due to all these reasons US with its allies have formed new strategy and came up with AUKUS.
SECURITY DILEMMA
When it comes to security dilemma it can be applied to both US and china in this case.
US SECURITY DILEMMA:
Indo Pacific is very important strategic region. It has complex political interest due to its huge area and involvement of major countries which include US and China. The rise of Chinese dominance in this region cause security dilemma for other major states involved. US also feel this security dilemma. AUKUS is example of US security dilemma due to Chinese rise. As when state feel security dilemma they form alliances to counter the threat.
CHINESE SECURITY DILEMMA:
According to this agreement US will provide nuclear submarines to Australia which they will deploy in the Pacific Ocean. US and others allies also look to increase military installation in the region. China will be encircled by its enemies. It will create security dilemma for china as they are surrounded by heavy enemy military installations. They will see it as threat to their theory and regional stability. They will also look to speed up deployment of weapon and it will lead to ARM RACE. It result in Nuclearization of the pacific.
NON PROLIFERATION
The AUKUS deal with arming Australia nuclear submarines has initiated debate among scholars of non proliferation. “The current practice of the UK and the US’ reactors for powering submarines entails the usage of bomb-grade highly enriched uranium (HEU) fuel, which is being viewed by scholars from the Asia-Pacific as “bearing serious negative implications for nuclear proliferation, damaging the NPT regime”. So non proliferation community view this as dangerous for future non proliferation aims as states might see submarines as excuse of developing NW as NPT does not obtain from operation nuclear powered ships other than military means. There are a lot of irrational states like Iran, N.K that can use it for their benefits.
RAMIFICATION ON US ALLIES
IMPACT ON FRANCE:
AUKUS deal had negatively impacted France and their relation with these states. According to France this pact undermine their security concerns as they are equally at threat from China rise and being part of NATO and US allies they should have been part of this deal. Moreover France deal of 35 billion $ of weapons with Australia cancelled after this pact. It has also effect France as they get economic loss. France had been quite vocal about it and have been criticizing this deal and accusing Australia. They have been raising slogan of “AMERICA ALONE”. But France needs to be less open in criticism as it can create crises in crises. Although this deal reduces France contribution in Indo Pacific relatively but it does not change their interests. France should look for strategic partnership other than these three state and gain its objectives.
IMPACT ON NATO:
According to Chinese official and some observer this deal will definitely going to impact NATO. Yes it is true that it will have negative impact on NATO. It will create misunderstanding but a serious rift cannot occur. There are certain reasons to it. As UK in past already have gone through clashes with NATO ally but none last long. Secondly France and UK have deep military ties. But it is also true that better decision should have been made which include all its allies.
Conclusion:
In conclusion, while the United States has long maintained its status as the preeminent global power since World War II, recent developments signal a shift in this dynamic. The rise of China, with its rapid advancements in economic, military, and technological domains, presents a significant challenge to US hegemony. This has prompted the US to forge strategic alliances such as QUAD and AUKUS to counterbalance China’s growing influence, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region. These alliances aim to enhance security cooperation and technological sharing among member nations, addressing the multifaceted threats posed by China’s assertive policies. Despite perceptions of declining hegemony, the US remains actively engaged in shaping the global order and responding to emerging challenges through robust international collaborations.
Bibliography
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