Pakistan’s Foreign Policy | op-ed |24-june-2024
The dawn of the 21st century brings large complexities to the global world order. The rise of China was a normal phenomenon for US policymakers. Till President Trump assumed power in the White House. Trump was the first person who identify the “China Threat” and how this threat would be a nightmare for United States if it did not act accordingly. Resultantly, he took a hard stance on China that specifies the term “Trade War”. It opened a new pandora box in between both states. Although Trump did not make it into his second term as President, his policies against China deeply imprinted US foreign policy. The incumbent president Biden also come up against China in a similar tone to Trump. There is a continuous rhetoric of competition with China, ergo the past sloganeering of cooperation with China. Hence, the anti-China rhetoric of China is likely to continue even further with more assertiveness in US politics.
China’s Position
In addition to this, China has altogether transformed its foreign policy choices. During the Mao’s era, China adopted an isolationist approach. In Deng’s tenure, China’s foreign policy was more a kind of economic diplomacy and little concern was present for the geo-politics. This approach continued during the successor of Deng until XI became the premier of China. The foreign policy of China has undergone a systemic transformation in his time. He opens up a more pragmatic approach and leads China into the global arena of power politics. Furthermore, China has accelerated its military modernization, and R&D in emerging technologies like artificial intelligence, lethal autonomous weapons, hypersonic weapons, directed energy weapons, biotechnology, and quantum technology.
China’s assessment of booming power is a main apprehension between super power US and China. According to the Chinese policymakers: It aims only to lead into the new technological world while US has reservations about China’s military sophistication, and how AI and cyber power can boost China’s power militarily. For this, Xi Jinping espouses a more aggressive stance basically in the East and South China Sea to increase its regional influence. This leaves the surrounding states like Japan, Australia, and ASEAN countries in a quagmire as they think that China is forcefully imposing its hegemonic aspirations in their area. The United States tried to curtail China unilaterally. However, it did not yield the possible outcome and increased the prospects of full-time escalation between both states.
Development of a new security alliance AUKUS
In relation, US turned its policy from Asia Pacific strategy to the “Indo-Pacific” strategy to contain the hegemonic influence in a better way. In disguise, the US also wants to keep its hold on the geo-strategically important areas of the Asia-Pacific region as well. Although, China specifically orients its policy regarding Sea Lanes of Communication in the Asia-Pacific and terms it as an “interest-free area for China”, yet US formed the alliances of QUAD and AUKUS to deter China.
Choices for Pakistan
In this regard, Pakistan has been sandwiched between the US and Chinese power politics. On one hand, it has deep economic relations with China, which is investing heavily via the CPEC. China is considered a most trusted partner for Pakistan and an important neighbor in terms of geo-politics as well. On the contrary, Pakistan could not hedge all its bets against the US because Pakistan is still dependent on it. It has historic ties with the US and it is closer to it in the military domain. Similarly, Pakistan is a nuclear state and it has to act wisely in cooperation between both states. In short, Pakistan would find itself in difficulty if it ever had to choose among China and the US for granted.
Nonetheless, the new role of India, with the backing of the US, to curtail China in quid-pro-quo to attain regional hegemony has lifted the eyebrows of Pakistan. The US wants India to play a more active maritime role and is also eager to enhance India’s military capabilities. The possibility of growing military asymmetry between India and Pakistan is an obvious cause of concern for the latter. Pakistan never wants India to be a hand tool of the US that would be problematic for regional peace and stability. It will also disturb the Balance of Power in the region. Therefore, the new India policy in East Asia seems to be more challenging for Pakistan.
Conclusion
However, the need for Pakistan is to act rationally in this anarchic situation. For this, Pakistan’s foreign policy to be formulated according to the needs of the modern world which raises the stake of Pakistan on a regional level. Similarly, the geo-economic should be strengthened to the core. The FDI must be incentivized in the country to make Pakistan economically viable.
Consequently, consistency in a foreign policy is key to its success. Pakistan must not be divided between the two superpowers. The CPEC should be structured at every cost. The investment in Human Capital for Pakistan is a primary pre-requisite. Lastly, a national consensus on strategic options should be available for Pakistan. In essence, the Indo-Pacific is a new battlefield of competition between China and the United states that is also crucial for Pakistan. However, the need is to reformulate Pakistan’s foreign policy to gain the positive results of national interests.
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