Influx of Afghan refugees/ Blog/ 16-june-2024
This study examines the impact of Afghan refugees on Pakistan’s national security following the Soviet Union’s invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. It examines how this influx strained resources, intensified social tensions, and led to economic inequalities in impoverished regions such as Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. In addition, the study highlights refugees’ involvement in militancy, the establishment of radical madrasas, and the resulting security threats. A mixed methods approach integrates qualitative and quantitative data to comprehensively analyze. The results highlight the need for better border management, economic integration, and international cooperation to address these multifaceted challenges.
INTRODUCTION:
Conflict is one of the main causes of displacement of millions of people worldwide. Refugees arrive in host countries in a fragile state of mind, having lost their resources due to conflict and violence. Most refugees move to the nearest state to find shelter, creating difficulties for refugees and affecting host countries, which must accommodate large numbers of displaced individuals.
With the shift in global power relations from the late 1970s to the 1980s, the weakening of relations between the United States and the Soviet Union, and the end of the era of détente, the world witnessed proxy wars and regional conflicts promoted by the great powers. The United States modified its containment policy to include and indirectly support insurgencies in communist regimes. This policy was implemented in Afghanistan in response to the Soviet invasion in 1979, which led to catastrophic changes, political and economic instability, a critical law and order situation, and one of the largest migrations in world history. In this era of great power competition, Asian countries faced mass exodus, with Pakistan, Iran, and India experiencing large-scale migration.
For Pakistani policymakers, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan was an opportunity to end global isolation due to ongoing nuclear research. The political climate in Asia was not favorable to the Western bloc after the overthrow of the Shah of Iran. It was in the interest of the United States and Pakistan to unite against the Soviet Union to achieve their national goals. Despite regional disputes with Afghanistan, the Pakistani government opened its borders to millions of Afghan refugees, becoming the main recipient of these refugees. The region suffered greatly due to the political agendas of the United States and Pakistan, which exploited the Afghan refugees. The United States aimed to exclude the Soviet Union and strengthen its base in the region, while Pakistan supported the Afghan resistance to balance its regional position and establish a government in Afghanistan that would protect its national interests.
The Afghan war led to mass migration with significant long-term economic, social, political, and environmental impacts on Pakistani society. It has created internal and external security challenges and caused political, social and economic instability in the country. Pakistan currently hosts 1.7 million registered Afghan refugees, with more than 3.7 million refugees overall in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces. The Pakistani government initially welcomed the refugees, but soon faced a lack of resources and appealed to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees to assist in refugee operations. UNHCR established a permanent office in Pakistan and launched the largest support program ever undertaken. More than 3 million refugees have received aid, including food, clothing, shelter, construction materials for camps, clean drinking water, veterinary services, and non-material support such as education and health facilities. Despite the involvement of UNHCR and international donors, the effects of migration on Pakistani society have been severe and catastrophic.
After the September 11 attacks, the United States and its allies launched a war against the Taliban government in Afghanistan, plunging the country back into conflict. This chaos and unrest forced a large number of Afghans to seek refuge in Pakistan. By the end of 2001, the number of Afghan refugees in Pakistan had risen to nearly five million, posing further challenges to the Pakistani government (Khan, 2016). The government views these refugees as a security threat, as they are said to be involved in smuggling goods and people across the border. The daily border crossings of Afghan refugees drain the resources of the Pakistani government, which is trying to control this influx.
To address these complex challenges, Pakistan needs a comprehensive strategy that encompasses immediate humanitarian needs and long-term integration and security solutions. Improved border management is crucial to controlling the influx of refugees and preventing cross-border militant activities. Additionally, implementing economic and social integration policies can help mitigate the adverse effects on local populations, such as job displacement and economic disparities. International cooperation and support are essential in providing resources and infrastructure to accommodate refugees while addressing security concerns. Collaborative efforts with international organizations like the UNHCR can enhance the effectiveness of aid programs and ensure the equitable distribution of resources. By balancing humanitarian considerations with national security imperatives, Pakistan can better manage the socio-political dynamics associated with the prolonged presence of Afghan refugees and work towards a more stable and secure environment for both refugees and host communities.
UN CENSUS AND IMPACT ON SOCIAL FABRIC:
The UNHCR and the Pakistani government conducted a census of the Afghan population in Pakistan in 2002 and found that 3,049,268 Afghans lived in Pakistan, 42% in camps and 58% in urban areas. Of these, 81% were Pashtuns, with smaller percentages of Tajiks, Uzbeks, Turkmens, and other ethnic groups (Census of Afghans in Pakistan, 2005).
While some studies suggest that the arrival of refugees may have no positive effects on the economy of the host country – for example, Cuban migrants in Miami did not affect local employment, only increasing average wages for low-skilled workers, and Soviet refugees in Israel increased the country’s population by 12% over four years, which directly affects employment (Clemens, 2017, September 14) – the situation was different in Pakistan.
The influx of Afghan refugees into Pakistan led to immediate competition for resources such as water, land, food, and property, especially in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, where most of the refugees were staying. Over time, this increased demand for resources, education, energy, transportation, and employment, causing further resentment among the local populations of these provinces. Both Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan are poor and have long been demanding disenfranchisement. The exodus of Afghans has seriously affected the economic interests of the residents. While the economic activities of refugees may benefit a particular class or government, they often disadvantage the poorer local population, who are dependent on monthly incomes, as refugees work as cheap labor, undermining local wages.
In addition, economic concerns concern Afghan traders who operate in various cities of Pakistan without paying taxes. In Peshawar alone, many Afghan merchants have become billionaires but have not contributed to the tax base, creating a burden on local taxpayers and businesses and negatively affecting revenue collection.
Despite these challenges, the economic impact of refugees on host countries can also be positive. For example, many of Afghanistan’s livestock, estimated at almost 2.5 million, have moved with the refugees to Pakistan, significantly boosting the local meat and milk market. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Afghan refugees have brought 45,000 camels, 35,000 cows and 25,000 donkeys, which has increased local food purchases. In addition, international aid and refugee assistance programs have boosted local economies, contributing to infrastructure development and economic growth. Nevertheless, the large-scale refugee presence remains a serious burden on Pakistan, especially its less developed regions.
POLITICAL IMPACT:
The third major impact is the political and security impact. Which has mostly had a negative impact on the receiving state, where security risks prevail due to refugees. The political affiliation of refugees with their mother country creates trouble in the host state, the same is true in Pakistan. Afghans living in Pakistan directly supported the Taliban movement. The Soviet Union and still they are engaged in anti-state activities in the current war in Afghanistan against the United States. It created conflict, chaos, terrorism and that activity refugees have destabilized the host state as well as the region. The state of Balochistan, KPK and Tribal Areas of Pakistan have suffered greatly in this dirty war terrorism and millions faced internal migration. Institutions, tribal territories were destroyed, schools and hospitals were bombed, the masses were forced to leave their own territories (World Development Report, 2011).
After the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, refugees were settled in camps in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa were directly involved in the Afghan war. The madrassas were created to educate and train them against the Soviet Union and finance these refugees and madrasas came from the US and Saudi Arabia. So these investments promote fundamentalism and intolerance among Afghan refugees. It was the madrassas used to brainwash children in the name of jihad and religion. This fundamentalist approach was the main cause of growing intolerance among the affected refugees and the local population of the host state; Madrasahs in Pakistan still have their connections and sympathies with the Taliban against the US and its allies. This is one of the main reasons of Instability and unrest in the country (Tariq, 2011).
The last government of Pakistan (PML N) stated that in most cases of terrorism. Afghan refugees are directly or indirectly involved. Refugee camps located nearby the border of their own land are mainly used by the rebels as their hideouts and strongholds start their activities. The rebels carry out their operations with the support of refugees residing in host states and sometimes the host state itself, pursuing their national interests to help refugees border these groups.
For example, during the Afghan war refugees received logistical support, military training and support in every way from the Government of Pakistan. As a result, refugee camps are born near the borders of the motherland political instability in the host state (Khan, 2015). If there is a meeting about the political ideas of refugees with their country of origin, then interventions take place in the receiving state;The assassination of the former Amir of the Afghan Taliban Mullah Akhtar Mansoor has opened a new Pandora’s box due to US drone strikes. On his Pakistani national identity card found at the scene Proof enough that the Afghan leader is supported by elements living in Pakistan. And it was shocking to see how it is extremely easy to make CNIC in Pakistan than Afghan one .Amer faced no obstacles for it.
This irresponsibility of the state makes the situation worse and vulnerable which contributes to insecurity in the region. Refugee aid to rebel groups creates instability and uncertainty for the party giver. Therefore, the politics of refugees’ ideas and involvement are too dangerous for host states. According to Gil Loescher: The professor from the Oxford University Refugee Studies Center says: “Refugees are often considered an international issue of charity, and not as a political or security issue .However, refugees are actually intensely political. Presence of refugees accelerates existing internal conflicts in host countries” (Kirui, & Mwaure, 2012, April). Refugees create problems when they serve as domestic opposition or support for one the agenda of the party against another community. In such conditions, a kind of mistrust arises among the local population leading to a crisis. In the case of Balochistan, extreme mistrust is deeply rooted in the minds of the local Baloch population. They have concerns and reservations that refugees are part of the demographic change agenda of the state, which would make them a minority. This sense of threat to become a minority in their own province caused anger and resentment among the local residents. Therefore, Nationalist forces in the state demanded the return of the refugees to their mother country (Loescher, 1996).
CONCLUSION:
Conflict-induced displacement has profoundly affected host countries, with Pakistan being a prime example. The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 precipitated one of the largest migrations in history, leading millions of Afghans to seek refuge in Pakistan. This mass influx created significant strains on Pakistan’s resources and infrastructure, particularly in the provinces of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. These regions, already struggling with poverty and limited resources, faced increased competition for basic necessities such as water, land, food, and employment. The arrival of Afghan refugees intensified local economic pressures, leading to heightened resentment and social tensions. While some studies suggest that refugee influx can boost local economies through increased demand and international aid, the situation in Pakistan has been more complex. Afghan traders, operating tax-free in Pakistani markets, have created economic disparities, while the influx of cheap labor has depressed local wages, further disadvantage in the poorer segments of the population.
The prolonged influx of Afghan refugees has also had profound political and security implications for Pakistan. The refugees’ involvement in the Afghan war and subsequent conflicts has created a persistent security challenge. Many refugees have maintained political affiliations with factions in Afghanistan, such as the Taliban, which has led to increased instability and terrorist activities within Pakistan. The establishment of madrassas funded by external actors during the Soviet-Afghan war promoted fundamentalism and intolerance, contributing to the radicalization of both refugees and segments of the local population. These madrassas continue to pose a security threat, fostering connections with militant groups. Furthermore, refugee camps near the Afghan border have often been used as safe havens for militant activities, complicating Pakistan’s internal security landscape. The political and security risks associated with the refugee crisis underscore the need for a comprehensive strategy that addresses both the immediate humanitarian needs and the long-term integration and security challenges posed by the refugee population. This includes improved border management, economic and social integration policies, and sustained international cooperation to mitigate the adverse effects and harness potential benefits of hosting refugees.
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