Taliban Rule | Analysis | Security Lense | 21-Aug-2024
August 15th,2021 is a day that left the world in shock as the Taliban returned to power, once again proving that Afghanistan is a graveyard of superpowers. It has been three years since they came to power, and their rule has been marked by ups and downs. However, the issue of international recognition still persists due to ongoing human rights violations, which overshadows their credibility as a stakeholder.
Overview of the Taliban regime
The Taliban have sustained themselves without international recognition and help, maintaining full control over their country. While some things have improved, others remain matters of concern. They have solidified their structure; improved infrastructure; reduced poppy cultivation and corruption; increased participation in regional dialogues; and begun sending their delegates for diplomatic relations.
However, all these reforms are overshadowed by human rights violations, which were also included in the Doha Agreement—the basis for US-Taliban negotiations to end the protracted conflict in Afghanistan. This agreement included the protection of human rights, particularly those of women, the establishment of an inclusive government, and the eradication of ties with transnational terrorist groups. Regarding the conditions mentioned in the agreement, the Taliban’s policies have affected women more than any other segment of society.
The rationale behind the Taliban’s ban on education is an orthodox interpretation of Shariah and the concerns for the safety and security of Afghan women. Taking this into account, a statement was issued by Taliban officials on February 27, 2023, that the ban on education is not permanent and hence indicating a sense of leniency compared to the situation in 1996. Additionally, medical education is still operational in Afghanistan.
These circumstances signal a possible willingness for negotiation and flexibility in policies due to pressures from both domestic and international criticism that call for the fulfillment of women’s fundamental right to education. However, issues such as restrictions on freedom of movement, gender-based violence, and exclusion from jobs continue to remain as significant concerns.
In terms of inclusivity in the Taliban government, there are eight non-Pashtuns in the administration, but no other democracy or autocracy abides by this—this exception is only for the Afghan Taliban government. In terms of international engagements, the Taliban are signing economic pacts with countries like Pakistan, China, and Central Asian states and are also participating in regional dialogues, such as the recent Doha talks.
In terms of stability, Afghanistan today is more stable than it was during the 20-year war. Not only has security improved as long scale conflicts are reduced and the Taliban claiming to combat groups like ISIS-Khorasan (ISK), which has conducted several attacks in Afghanistan, but Afghanistan remains a dire human rights crisis.
Afghanistan has also made economic progress despite the withdrawal of international aid as according to National Statistics and Information Authority, in 2023, Afghanistan exported goods worth $2,025.3 million, with 36.3% of these exports comprising fresh and dried fruits that were exported to Pakistan, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, the United States, Iran, Germany, Tajikistan, Turkey, India, and several other countries through various ports. Among these goods, $1,178 million were exported to Pakistan, $416 million to India, $34 million to the UAE, $28 million to China, and $27 million to Iran. Although much work is needed to boost Afghanistan’s exports and reduce the trade deficit, the fact that exports have reached approximately $2,000 million is noteworthy.
Moreover, in 2023, 1,006 million tons of goods were transited through Afghanistan between South and Central Asia. Of these, around 6,000 tons of commercial goods were transferred to Pakistan, which was previously considered impossible. The state also exported goods worth $1,178 million to Pakistan last year.
Talking about industrial developments over the first two years, 1,500 factories were opened across Afghanistan, and licenses were issued to 1,004 industrial and manufacturing companies. In addition, 22,500 entrepreneurs, including 600 foreign nationals and women, were issued work permits by government agencies and private sector institutions.
Lastly, infrastructure projects like the Kushtipa Canal mega project, with a budget equivalent to $104 million, are being carried out by Afghan engineers, including the Misainak mega project. On July 24, 2024, the construction of the road leading to the Misainak project began in the presence of the Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs and the head of the Chinese company. To address the health issues, Afghanistan plans to establish pharmaceutical factories and modern hospitals.
On July 25, a pharmaceutical factory worth $20 million was inaugurated in Kabul. In 2023, the Snow Pharma factory, which produces medicine and healthcare products worth $120 million, was also inaugurated. Several other pharmaceutical factories were opened or granted licenses to the private sector in Herat, Kandahar, and other provinces.
The Farshir River Water Transfer Project is being designed and carried out by an Afghan and Australian company to provide clean drinking water to around 9 million residents of Kabul city and contribute to the city’s cleanliness and environment. On April 7, 2024, the Nilava residential project was inaugurated by the Chinese company with an investment of $71 million. The project consists of 56 blocks with 1,400 apartments, and the work is currently 25% complete.
The project is expected to be finished within three years likewise with the other infrastructure and development projects. Despite international pressure and sanctions, currently, dozens of big and small projects are going on in different parts of Afghanistan.
Afghanistan believes in equal development so that every member of Afghan society can benefit from public services. A Trans-Afghan project was introduced last year where the Afghan, Pakistani, and Uzbek officials held several meetings in Islamabad, Kabul, and Tashkent to discuss the survey, financing, and implementation of the Trans-Afghan project.
The protocol was signed in July last year in Islamabad. This project, which spans 760 km, is expected to be completed by 2027 and will have the capacity to transport 15 million tonnes of goods by 2030. In addition to those projects, last month, Afghanistan completed the survey for the Tati project pipeline in northern Afghanistan. Moreover, after two days of talks with officials from Pakistan, Turkey, and the Islamic Emirate an agreement was reached with all parties last year to start the practical work on the Qasr-1000 project, which is expected to be completed by next year.
In Afghanistan, the project facilities will extend for 580 km from Shirkhan Bandar and Qanduz to Tukham in Nangarhar, connecting to Pakistan. National Conferences have also been a focus as last year, several conferences and economic exhibitions were held in Kabul and other cities, including the National World Conference, the Afghan-Kazakh Exhibition, the Imam Abu Hanifa Exhibition, the Book Reading Exhibition, the Agriculture Products Exhibition, the Domestic Products Exhibition, and others.
Following the instructions given by the international community, Afghanistan has successfully cracked down on poppy cultivation, but this has severely impacted farmers whose livelihoods depend on it.
The United States remained in Afghanistan for about twenty years, making numerous mistakes, such as forcibly removing the Taliban in 2001 instead of negotiating, excluding the Taliban from the Bonn Agreement, not including Ashraf Ghani in the Doha Agreement negotiations despite his role as the chief executive of the country and his representation of a significant portion of the Afghan people.
Ghani and his government had substantial expertise in governance, security, and international relations that could have been valuable in the peace process. Additionally, the U.S. left Afghanistan hastily after the Taliban takeover. Now, the U.S. is unwilling to sit at the table with the Afghan Taliban. All of this suggests that the U.S. is not as concerned about the security of Afghanistan as they claim to be, as it lacks genuine commitment to achieving lasting peace.”
Moreover, a report from SIGAR has shown that the Afghan Taliban are providing safe havens to ISKP and TTP. ISKP is a threat not only to Afghanistan but to the entire region which is why the Taliban government should stop providing safe havens to transnational terrorist groups for the sake of regional stability and security.
Both the Taliban and the international community should address their concerns and work together because a stable Afghanistan is important for a stable region. And it should be understood by now that the Taliban are a reality that are to be accepted if further developments are to take place.
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