India Pakistan Water Issue | Security Lense | Article | 4-Oct-2024
Water is essential for survival of human. So water is basic human right. The famous British poet WH Auden said,” Thousand have lived without love but not one without water”. This statement is very much relevant in South Asia, especially India and Pakistan. It is the most populous region of world. The economy of this region is largely based on agriculture. Unfortunately, this region has seen water crises due to insufficiency, mismanagement and certain other factors. This has affected the economy of both countries.
So this scarcity of water lead to conflict often referred as water wars. Indus Water Treaty has provided resistance to this conflict to some ratio. But with Indian disrespecting the treaty by construction of several dams the water insecurity again rises in Pakistan. Moreover growing population and decreasing water level in river also causes threats beyond imagination.
As India and Pakistan both are nuclear states so these insecurity further deepens and is a cause of concern for international community as well. In this article we will discuss background of this conflict, how this conflict shape with time and situation of human rights in this conflict. Then we will discuss the role of international community to resolve this issue and policy option for Pakistan to eliminate this threat. But before this we will discuss what is importance of water for Pakistan and scale of threat its scarcity causes.
Water hold great importance in Pakistan economy as most of Pakistan economy is based on agriculture. Water from Indus is very important for livelihood of people. Irrigated water provides 90 % of wheat, grains and nearly 100% of rice, cotton, fruits and vegetables. Pakistan population was 138 million in 19998 and it is 220 million in 2020 and is expected to rise to 230 million in 2025 at growth rate of 2% annually. Pakistan will need to increase its water availability by 25% in order to meet its demand in 2025. To get that water relation with country that depends on same source could be really impacted. It is rightly mentioned by an international news agency DW in their documentary that “Water scarcity in Pakistan –A bigger threat than terrorism”. Research about water scarcity show that this region would dry up by 2025. Also water storage facilities are not proper in our country. There is no construction of dams since 1960’s. The point here is that Pakistan is at top of list when it comes to countries which economies are most dependent on water. The amount of water, in cubic meters, used per unit of GDP is world highest. According to International Monetary Fund (IMF), Pakistan is already third most water-stressed country in the world. The annual availability of water per capita is 1,017 cubic meters. It is very close to scarcity level. 1000 cubic meters is considered as scarcity threshold. It has followed downward trend. As it was 1500 cubic meters in 2009. This scarcity is causing conflict in region.
INDIA PAKISTAN WATER ISSUE
Now we will discuss background of this conflict and the Indus water treaty. The conflict originates at time of partition. While dividing Sir Cyril Radcliffe not only divided land but also water integrated the Indus canal system. Both states ware given responsibility to jointly manage the irrigation system for future. After partition India became upper riparian state while Pakistan became lower riparian region. It means water will flow from River in India to Pakistan. Indian and Pakistan being arch rival, soon after partition India suspended all the river flow towards Pakistan as Pakistan depends on agriculture it feel threatened. Pakistan in response approach international community. Pakistan also retaliate at diplomatic level. Initially little to no progress was made regarding this issue. India continue to disturb Pakistan with suspending water flow. But after decade of tense relation World Bank realizes the problem and came up with a solution to resolve this matter. Indus water treaty was signed in 1960 between India and Pakistan in which World bank was mediator. According to this treaty Ravi, Sutlej and bias was given to India and Chenab, Jhelum and Indus came under Pakistan. The eastern river was rewarded to India and the western river to Pakistan. Under this treaty both the counties were allowed to use each other’s water for domestic
Purposes such as power production, agriculture and non consumptive purposes. This treaty also say that not to use in a way that lower the water of other country rivers. It mean India cannot build hydropower plants and dams in these rivers. This treaty proved quite beneficial as it decrease the conflict between the two states due to water.
But it was not long that the conflict rise again. In 1999 India announced the construction of Baglihar dam on Chenab river. It causes great concern to Pakistan as India didn’t listen to Pakistan doubt on design of the dam. According to the Pakistan government the design of the dam could decrease water level in Chenab.
The dam not only threatened environment and farming community but also displaced hundreds of people. This dam is located in the Rambhan district of Indian administered Kashmir. This dam was designed to store water from river during dry season. It can cause severe drought or flooding. After discussing this matter with Indus commission no result was achieved. Then it was taken to World Bank and it didn’t stop the dam from completion. Then it was opened on 2008.
Now we will discuss the present situation of the issue. It looks like the conflict that was reduced between the two countries have refreshed after Indian PM Narendra Modi controversial statements. He say that he would bring Indus back. They have also started reviewing the treaty and possibilities are they are trying to break the treaty.
It is unacceptable for Pakistan. Indus river belong to Pakistan and Modi statement of bring it back to India has raised serious questions. Special assistance to PM Imran Khan confirmed that no changes to IWT would be accepted by Pakistan. With increasing water shortage on both sides any step taken to counter this issue separately can affect region peace. Both states are nuclear weapon holders so any misconduct could be fatal. After recent terrorist attack in Kashmir, India threat to stop water flow to Pakistan.
We can say that India is using water as a new weapon against Pakistan and it is most dangerous of all. Although India also is facing water scarcity even more than Pakistan but to challenge Indus water treaty is not the way to go. Both countries separately cannot deal with water scarcity. It will only lead to deepening of conflict.
Jointly managing this issue is only solution. But India is continuous threatening by construction of several dams on Chenab, Jhelum and Neelum river in IOK. Rattle dam, kishan ganga, sawalkot dam and wullar barrage are causing water insecurity as they can lower flow of Chenab and Jhelum river to great extent. This would put in danger already trumbling economy by affecting irrigation. Moreover water for drinking and domestic purposes would not be available. This is very alarming, though government and other institution don’t seem much serious about it for a long time. It is a greater threat to Pakistan than any other issue even bigger than terrorism.
Now we will discuss human right issue relating this conflict. Water is considered basic human right and is necessary for survival of human. It mean India depriving Pakistan people from there is water is violation of human right. As water from India is used by local for agriculture and domestic purposes and they totally depend on agriculture for livelihood.
The construction of dams will impact flow of water and their lives will be effected and it will be difficult for them to even just survive seldom progress. It will not only remain right of water but food, sanitation, employment, healthcare etc of people who depend on water. Considering it human right issue the role of international community is very crucial. There are a lot of international organizations that declare access to water a basic human right for human being living anywhere in world. UN is the most prominent of the following. Here some of clauses of international community that declare water as human right are mentioned,
THE UNITED NATION CHARTER
United nation has highlighted different rights of human and is concerned with developments all around world. Article 55 of United Charter mention following points,
a. Higher standards of living, full employment, and condition of economic and social progress and development;
b. Solution of international economic, social, health and related problems; and international culture and educational cooperation;
c. Universal respect for, and observance of, human rights and fundamental freedoms for all without distinction as to race, sex, language or religion.
According to these points it is very necessary to ensure water safety as it is not only important for survival of life but also for human development and progress. It provide food to people. Rural people made fortune out of it. Their future completely depend on water. Contrary climate changes and increasing population and decreasing water resources causing threats.
THE UNITED NATION WATERCOURSES CONVENTION
This UN convention is specially focused on right to access of water. This also highlights importance of access to water used for drinking is necessary than using in generating electricity. This put responsibility on state to ensure that every citizen is getting water for drinking before starting mega projects. It also show that one country cannot deprive other country from its water by building hydro power projects in the way India is doing.
There are certain other convention which strongly highlights importance of water in different means.
- THE DUBLIN STATEMENT, 1992.
- AGENDA 21, UN
- THE STOCKHOLM DECLERATION, 1972
- THE POLITICAL DECLARATION, 2016
THE ROLE OF WORLD BANK IN INDO PAK CONFLICT
In India Pakistan water dispute World Bank has a great role. Indus water treaty was formulated by World Bank and there are certain responsibilities of World Bank;
As World Bank is facilitator, it has formulated IWT and whenever any conflict rise regarding IWT World Bank steps in. It has a set procedure through which it mediate in the issue.
One of steps is appointment of neutral expert. When severe disagreement occur between them and they cannot resolve the issue bilaterally neutral expert has to come up with a solution and both countries are bound to accept it resolution. Neutral expert look at both opinion. However if it become unable to resolve the matter then it is taken to court of arbitration. Both India and Pakistan provide this system to World Bank.
World Bank provides court and select a judge if issue is not resolved by neutral expert. However it don’t directly involve in court procedure.
Lastly, we will discuss the option available for Pakistan to counter dispute.
In India Pakistan Water Issue, Bilateral talks is the generally the first option when looking to resolve the dispute. But in this both countries need to act responsibly. However, there have been time when India Pakistan relation were milder but looking at current situation it doesn’t seem as an option as both countries are in continuous fighting at borders, event like Pulwama, Kashmir status revoked. It is impossible for bilateral talks to happen.
The second option will be always of World Bank and we have discussed that in detail above. But it seems World Bank is unable to enforce its rule to solve this. However it will always remain part of the treaty.
Third and most different option for Pakistan is approaching China. As China is closer to Pakistan than ever so we can request them to force India to open water flow.
Interesting thing is China is upper riparian to India. As water to Pakistan come from india, similarly the water to india come from China. China can stop water of India. Even China has also blocked one side by blocking Tibet river water. If China stop water to India it would effect india region of Assam greatly. Their crops, agriculture would be damaged. However Pakistan don’t want to violate human rights by doing this but it will be always an option to threat India.
Concluding India Pakistan Water Issue, the access to water is human right. No one has right to deprive other from this. As water is running short but it demands is increasing it is urgent to resolve it. India demand is doubling. The same is the case with Pakistan. But India using water as a weapon is not acceptable. Pakistan will strongly respond to it. It will avail all options if World Bank fail to do it. Considering both nuclear state any aggression is fatal. So bilateral talks are best means. It will require regional co operation.
“We have a near crises” said S. MASOOD HUSSAIN, chairman India central water commission. “We need better management of our water resources”.
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