Trump’s presidency and Pakistan | Security Lense | Article | 07-Nov-2024
“They are not after me, they’re after you…I am just standing in the way!”. These are the words of the former President of the United States, who has been elected as the 47th President of the US. The Prime Minister of Pakistan has already congratulated Trump on the historic win, the Premier wrote on Social Media Platform X ” I look forward to working closely with the upcoming administration to further strengthen and broader US-Pakistan partnership”.
Naeem Sadiq, an industrial engineer and volunteer activist, in his recent column in Dawn, describes these kinds of illusory statements by politicians as type 2 eyewash. It means that these kinds of emotionally backed statements are often just fake promises, which politicians forget after saying them in a hasty situation. Unfortunately, PM Shahbaz has a record of saying these kinds of statements, which Naeem described as Type 2 eyewash.
A relationship between Pakistan and the U.S. holds critical value for Islamabad; if not Washington. Many in the country have painted the U.S. elections as a free card for the PTI founder, Imran Khan while many see Trump’s presidency as a big hope for the Palestine conflict. However, both these statements seem false. Under Trump’s presidency, there is a great possibility that cooperation in the security sector with Pakistan will be increased, which was missing at the time of the Biden administration, and it can counter the rising wave of terrorism in the state.
Moreover, one must remember that in Trump’s presidency, the US-China tensions were heightened, as the trade war between the two economic giants prevailed. Previously, Pakistan was unable to reap the benefits of this trade war due to political turmoil in the state. This article explains how the Trump presidency will present a mix of both, beneficial and challenging situations for Pakistan in the times ahead.
Economic Implications:
The economic ties between the United States and Pakistan hold a deep value to both states. The United States is a critical market for Pakistani exports, as a report by Trading Economics indicates $5.01B in exports by Pakistan to the United States. This means that out of every $100 exports abroad, $20 head towards the US.
In his recent interview on Fox News, Trump explicitly expressed his intentions to impose a 60% or higher tariff on Chinese imports and an increase of 10% tariffs on overall imports, which will also include Pakistan. Pakistan’s exports to the US mainly cover the textile industry which is targeted to middle- and lower-class groups. An increase of 10% tariffs on these exports will hinder Pakistan from reaping the low-price advantage.
Moreover, the US-Dominican Republic-Central American Free Trade Agreement (CBTPA) covers textiles and it encourages Central American states to increase exports to America by offering duty-free entry to their products. Imposing new tariffs on Pakistani exports may decrease the number of exports of the state to the US, as the state’s economy is already weakened by high interest rates.
However, experts argue that increasing tariffs on Pakistan is unlikely, as Washington plans to impose tariffs on the state where the Chinese production is relocated. Another aspect of economic ties between states is the Foreign aid from the US to Pakistan. Under the Biden administration, the White House has greatly invested in Pakistani institutions and civilian projects. This policy will be changed as Trump’s foreign policy choices are based on American priorities. During his previous tenure, the foreign aid to Pakistan by the US has significantly decreased and it can be expected of him to do the same.
It is important to mention the dependence of Pakistan’s economy on international institutions like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), on which Washington exerts significant influence. With a major repayment of the IMF loan ahead in December, Pakistan may need to shift to result-oriented economic policies.
Geopolitics and Security:
In 2018, Trump initiated a trade war with China, which decreased the number of exports by the Chinese to the US. Considering Pakistan’s firm economic ties with China, the White House under the new leadership may exert considerable pressure on Pakistan to restrict its partnership with China. Particularly, the China-Pakistan relations based on promoting CPEC may face backlash from the US.
Under his previous tenure, Trump has expressed the US ties with India as a pivotal partnership to promote a peaceful South Asian region, a broader Indo-Pacific strategy, and a strategic alliance to counter Chinese influence in the region. Due to the Indo-Pacific security dynamics and the Sino-US rift, Trump’s presidency may risk the South Asian security dynamics, which will lead to an aggressive stance on India on the Jammu & Kashmir region and increased economic influence in Afghanistan. What Pakistan can do is increase security cooperation with the US based on the confluence of the Afghan peace process and the rise of terrorism across the region.
Policy Options for Pakistan:
According to a report, the Trump administration aided $1.3 billion to Pakistan in 2019 amidst the rising security tensions in the region. During his previous tenure, Trump’s focus was solely on security initiatives, rather than long-term projects and institutions. While it limits the prospect of economic development in a state like Pakistan, it also opens a window of opportunity to counter the surge in terrorist activities in the region. According to a report by Business Standard, Pakistan witnessed 245 terrorist attacks in the first quarter of 2024. Security cooperation with the US can deter the rising threats of terrorism in the state and can help Pakistan counter-weight the India-US strategic partnership.
Trump’s presidency transactional leadership and his ‘America First’ policies will focus on what Islamabad has to offer to Washington. Pakistan will need to incentivize the United States to invest and initiate economic and security ventures in the state.
All in all, the Trump’s presidency presents a multifaceted window of opportunities and hardships. Pakistan needs to balance its geopolitical cooperation with Washington and Beijing. The increase of tariffs on Chinese exports can benefit Pakistan as it benefited Mexico during the Sino-U.S. trade war in 2018. Pakistan should also address the recent Chinese security concerns, which are pivotal in deciding the future of Pak-China economic ties. Moreover, security cooperation with the US is a blessing in disguise as it can stabilize the security situation in the state. The ties between the two states will depend on how Pakistan handles the political and economic policies of the US diplomatically. With Trump’s presidency, exciting times ahead!
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