Security Nexus Under Trump’s Second Term | Article | 21-Nov-2024
A New Era of Power Politics
Reassessing the Geopolitical Landscape
After Republicans secured a significant victory in all swing states, the world is busy calculating possible future scenarios of what could happen next after the return of Trump’s second term to the White House; however, the masses in Iran and other parts of the Middle East consider this electoral exercise nothing but just a race between Democrats and Republicans to choose the greater or lesser evil.
Simultaneously some Iranians are left upset after viewing Trump’s second term as in their opinion more robust and hostile political nature towards the Islamic republic.
This perception is based on previous events such as the unilateral withdrawal of the USA from the nuclear deal, stringent economic sanctions, and more likely his direct orders to assassinate an Iranian military commander “Qassem Soleimani’ which fueled further hostilities toward the presence of US army Troops in the middle east but as for now here is a question mark on the bench, would Mr. trump be returning with the same forceful mindset towards Islamic republic or would there be any change in his second term after few years of perceived political learning.
Israeli citizens are showing optimism over Trump’s second term winning as reported by times of Israel. Even Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was the first Among the world leaders to congratulate Trump on winning the presidential elections.
On his X account, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu posted “Congratulations”. This excitement may be particularly connected with their perception that Trump will take a hard line on Iran and its axis of resistance, including Hezbollah, Hamas, and Houthis as claimed by an Israeli Minister, although one can argue that this is not as easy as this seems to be. On the other hand, during his election campaign, Trump promised to bring peace to Ukraine.
This can be done by convincing Putin to agree on a ceasefire deal with terms and conditions in territorial favor of Russia. This could sideline the ambition of President Zelensky to take back all territories that were annexed during the war with Russia, however, now seems difficult as Bryan Lanza former adviser to President-elect Donald Trump said the incoming administration will focus on achieving peace in Ukraine rather than enabling the country to gain back territory occupied by Russia.
The Middle East: A Fragile Alliance in an Age of Escalating Tensions
The Middle East has been the war chamber for a long historical period, not particularly after the inception of the Iranian revolution but since the creation of the Zionist entity in the heartland of Arab populations. Thereafter the region faced several devastating confrontations along with gradual change in its political dynamism and nature.
The recent Israel-Hamas war has almost set fire in the area to the extent that Iran and Israel are now exchanging direct attacks with salvos of ballistic missiles at one another, surprisingly for the first time in history. The ongoing war has engulfed more than 42 thousand civilians and exacerbated regional tensions with Red Sea crises over the past year, cyberattacks through the detonation of pagers, political and military assassination of figures like Ismael Haniyeh and Hassan Nasrallah, and a recent ground invasion of South Lebanon.
Nonetheless, the region has been trapped in an unprecedented situation of war however will not come without any huge challenge for the Trump’s second term administration to make all the parties agree on common terms and conditions of ceasefire Israel sees it as the complete eradication of Hamas and Hezbollah as the only solution for its strategic victory
so that every space must be clear out from resistance group to ensure no repetition of another October 7 which broke the long-standing myth of Israelis that they will always remain under the safe heaven however it is a matter of another debate that few major blows were given by Israel to Hezbollah after dispersing its senior military command structure but still the group is posing a serious threat to the Zionist regime.
Here is a need to understand an interesting truth Iran does not seem to be standing in the position with any severe loss during this war, but it will ensure to continue defending its prime proxies like Hezbollah to maintain the status quo even if an agreement of ceasefire is reached, but at first that would surely meet the conditions in a way suitable for Iran and its bloc of the Axis of Resistance, and on the other side of the screen, Netanyahu is ambitious to completely erase the posture of this Iran-backed military coalition; however, it seems de facto that it does not matter if either the Democrats or Republicans remain in power.
Europe and Ukraine: Shifting Alliances and Strategic Calculations
If compared with the panic picture of the Middle East, rather than the image of Europe, it has not remained less horrific, as it was the hosting land of two major world wars. Aftermath Europe was divided into two blocs and set the international arena for the new world order where the ideological war of communism and capitalism was fought between eastern and western Europe.
The war was earlier started in 2014 after the Russian invasion of Crimea and later fueled the flame when Vladimir Putin ordered a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which marked the start of a new security dilemma and economic crisis for the whole world, particularly in Europe. The United States and NATO declared their unconditional military support under Biden’s administration and also provided financial assistance worth hundreds of billions of dollars, while on the other part of the game, Iran provided its prestigious ballistic missiles, ‘Fath-360 and UAVs, including Shahed-136, which are continuously used by Russia in the war against Ukraine.
This is because the Russia-Iran nexus shared a collective security interest in the region, particularly in Syria, where both of these regional actors played a crucial role in defending the Assad regime during the Syrian civil war.
Now there are some serious concerns here; no one exactly knows what could happen next if the Iran-Israel war continues in the Middle East, and on the other hand, Putin agrees on a ceasefire deal to end the war in Ukraine, which undoubtedly will be a plus point for the USA to sideline Iran, and not surprisingly, even a ceasefire deal will be in strategic favor of Russia if all occupied territories of Ukraine are declared as a part of the Russian territory.
Possibly, if it happens, however, after completing the first round successfully, it will not be much more difficult for the future administration of Trump to push Gulf states to revive the Abraham Accords after minimizing Russian support for Iran in the region.
Navigating the shifting landscape
It is a matter of fact that the ongoing war in the Middle East and Europe has reached its deepening layer; however, rational players will keep their eyes on the promises made by Trump’s second term while addressing his election campaign, specifically his stance to bring peace and prosperity to the region by forcing all the regional players to agree on a ceasefire deal, but this is still questionable how and when because it will require a very careful and balanced approach to ensure that all parties, including rivalries and allies, meet with their conditions and demands most suitable for them.
Nonetheless, it all depends upon what the priorities are in real terms, and Trump himself views neither Russia nor Iran but China as an emerging topmost geopolitical threat to American dominance. This is probably because he understands that the United States will not be able to sustain war from every side of the globe by always uplifting NATO on the front line in every crisis, as today’s geopolitical order is completely different from post-World War II when other European powers were economically paralyzed and the US introduced the Marshall Plan to reconstruct Europe.
But along with analyzing every situation closely in today’s geopolitical arena, he will not completely undermine any US ally, as it can further give a green signal to Russia and Iran to continue challenging US hegemony and its security apparatus. Resultantly he will try not to repeat previous mistakes made by other leaders, and what could happen next is not clear on camera, but either Trump’s second term will make America great again or he will become the ultimate cause of the decline of the US unipolar empire.
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