Russia-Ukraine War | Security Lense | OP-ED| 02-Dec-2024
The Russia-Ukraine war has been raging for more than a year and has witnessed wide-scale usage of a variety of modern and vintage weapon systems. These systems have been used to target military as well as civilian infrastructure. As the largest nuclear power producer in Europe, Ukraine’s atomic infrastructure became an unintended frontline, exposing the catastrophic risks posed by military actions nears such critical facilities. Any major damage to Civilian Nuclear Power Plants (CNPP) can jeopardize the safety or even functionality of the entire region.
Before the conflict, Ukraine was operating four nuclear sites housing 15 nuclear power plants in total. These nuclear power plants generate half of the country’s electricity generation. Chernobyl, the site of the world’s worst nuclear disaster, is no longer operational and was in a phase of decommissioning when the conflict erupted. The last nuclear reactor of Chernobyl was shut down in December 2000. In the opening days of the offense, Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant (CNPP) was captured by Russian forces without any note-worthy incident.
Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, was also captured by Russian forces in the first week of March. Unlike CNPP, which was easily captured, fighting took place near ZNPP, which also sustained physical damage by artillery fire. The combat between both forces under the threat of the looming threat of nuclear calamities ended when Russian forces finally took control of ZNPP after an intense fight. Unlike other nuclear plants, ZNPP has been vulnerable to military strikes throughout the conflict and despite consolidation of Russian control still poses a significant of nuclear disaster.
Strategically, ZNPP is crucial as it houses six of fifteen reactors of Ukraine and fulfills 20 percent of the national electricity demand. Unlike Chernobyl, which returned to Ukrainian control after the Russian retreat from North, ZNPP has been in Russian control since March 2022. In fact, with the annexation of Zaporizhya oblast, Russia has also declared a legal takeover of the plant. A nuclear meltdown of ZNPP would have caused destruction far more than Chernobyl incident. On September 11, the plant was cold shut down to minimize safety risks.
Other Ukrainian nuclear power plants located in Khmelnyitskyi, Rivne, and South Ukraine are currently far from ground battlefields however they are still vulnerable to Russian missile strikes. In total, nine civilian nuclear power plants are operational at these nuclear sites. Khmelnyitskyi Nuclear Power Plant (KhNPP) has two operational and two under-construction nuclear reactors. Rivne nuclear power plant (RNPP) has four operational reactors. And South Ukraine Nuclear Power Plant (SUNPP) has three nuclear reactors for power generation. On 15 November 2022, a Russian missile strike damaged the connectivity of these nuclear power plants with the national grid.
KhNPP’s connection with the national grid was compromised and two of its units, i.e. Units 1 and Unit 2 were completely shut down. The plant had to rely on diesel backup generators to perform crucial cooling functions. RNPP also lost its connectivity with the national grid, forcing it to reduce its production significantly to avoid any safety-related incidents. SUNPP completely lost its connectivity with the national grid. The connection was restored on 25 November 2022. Besides 15 November 22 missile strikes and surveillance drone activity in proximity, no direct attack has taken place against KhNPP, RNPP, and SUNPP till date. These plants are periodically supervised by IAEA inspectors and are currently fully operational.
With the change of leadership in the United States, it’s likely that conflict will eventually reach its culmination point in the near future. To achieve a better position on the negotiation table, both Russia and Ukraine are opting for more escalatory options to achieve military objectives as quickly as possible. Ukraine’s invasion of Russia’s Kursk region, deployment of North Korean troops by Russia, Ukraine’s use of ATACMS and Storm-shadow missiles against targets situated on the Russian mainland, and striking Ukraine with intermediate-range by Russia all are key examples in this regard. Under these circumstances, the vulnerabilities of nuclear power plants have increased even further as they can be targeted by long-range weapons advertently or inadvertently.
In brief, there are three types of threats to nuclear power plants. First: direct physical damage due to military actions such as shelling, missile strikes, and air strikes. Such attacks can not only jeopardize the integrity of the reactors but also increase the risk of radioactive leaks and potential meltdowns. Additionally, the occupation of nuclear facilities by hostile forces disrupts their normal operations, compelling plant personnel to work under extreme stress and potentially unsafe conditions, which heightens the likelihood of human error and operational failures.
Second: disruption continuous power supply necessary for maintaining critical safety functions at power plants can threaten its safe functionality. Damage to external power lines and substations forces these plants to rely on limited backup diesel generators, and prolonged outages can lead to overheating and severe nuclear incidents.
Third: The threat of sabotage is also ever-present, with occupied plants like ZNPP facing the risk of deliberate destruction of key systems, such as cooling mechanisms or spent fuel storage, which could trigger widespread radioactive contamination.
Fourth: cyber-attacks pose another significant danger, as targeting of reactor control systems and safety protocols can disable essential operations undermining the already precarious situation. Russia’s demonstrated cyber capabilities further intensify these concerns, making NPPs prime targets for digital assaults aimed at destabilizing Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Finally: the war has compromised the security of nuclear materials, increasing the risk of theft or diversion for malicious purposes, including the creation of radiological dispersal devices or “dirty bombs.”
The Russia-Ukraine war has exposed the vulnerabilities of civilian nuclear power plants (CNPPs) in modern warfare. It has also shown the inability of non-proliferation regimes to overcome the security threats posed by CNPPs situated in conflict zones. Threats like the use of direct kinetic force, mismanagement, cyber sabotage, disruption of power supply, and theft of nuclear materials can undermine the prospects of nuclear safety and security.
As the example of ZNPP illustrates, the presence of nuclear facilities in active combat zones can advertently or inadvertently increase the risks of nuclear catastrophe. Similarly, even CNPPs located at far locations are also exposed to the enemy’s long-range weapons. Overall, the Russia-Ukraine war has exposed the multifaceted threats to civilian nuclear power plants, highlighting the urgent need for robust international safeguards and protective measures to prevent these critical facilities from becoming collateral damage or strategic assets in modern warfare.
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