From Deterrence to Diplomacy | Book Review| Security Lense | 01-Feb-2024
Abstract
Nuclear power has evolved from a mere aspiration to a crucial component of Pakistan’s energy strategy, significantly altering its future. As the global focus on sustainable and clean energy grows, Pakistan has made considerable progress in establishing its nuclear energy capabilities. This development enhances the country’s energy independence and solidifies its position as an innovator in high-tech energy solutions within the region. For decades, Pakistan has faced escalating energy shortages, economic challenges, and environmental issues, all while striving to meet growing energy demands. Despite these obstacles, the nation’s current achievements stand as a testament to its commitment to pursuing modern technological advancements for national development.
Evolution and Development of Pakistan’s Nuclear Energy Program
Initial Steps: KANUPP-1 and Beyond
In the early 1970s, Pakistan began its nuclear energy journey with the commissioning of KANUPP-1 in Karachi, which received assistance from Canada. This reactor served as an important milestone for Pakistan, marking its entry into nuclear technology for peaceful purposes. Over time, Pakistan steadily expanded its nuclear energy portfolio, to bridge the gap between increasing energy demands and reduced dependence on fossil fuels.
As the population and industrial sectors grew, the pressure on the country’s limited energy resources intensified. With over 60% of its energy mix reliant on imported oil and gas, diversification became an urgent priority. Nuclear energy emerged as a promising solution— clean, reliable, and largely unaffected by weather conditions, which can often leave traditional power plants idle.
Strategic Partnerships: China and Nuclear Collaboration
Pakistan’s nuclear program has been spearheaded by the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC), which has worked tirelessly to develop expertise and infrastructure. Pakistan, in collaboration with China, constructed several nuclear reactors, including the Chashma Nuclear Power Plants and the recently completed Karachi Nuclear Power Plant Unit-3 (K-3).
These projects have not only boosted the country’s energy production but also highlighted Pakistan’s commitment to technological innovation and sustainable development, positioning the nation as a leader in the regional transition towards cleaner, more reliable energy solutions.
Pakistan’s Shift in Nuclear Strategy
Pakistan’s nuclear strategy has adapted over time in response to shifting regional and global dynamics. Initially, the country’s nuclear program was largely driven by the need to deter India, with its arsenal focused on short- and medium-range ballistic missiles aimed at Indian cities and military targets. However, recent developments suggest a broader strategic vision.
From Deterrence to Expansion
Reports indicate that Pakistan is working on the development of Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) capable of reaching targets beyond South Asia, potentially extending to Europe and the United States (Landay, 2024). Furthermore, Pakistan has introduced Tactical Nuclear Weapons (TNWs), such as the Nasr missile—short-range weapons designed for battlefield use (Khan, 2018). This shift in strategy aligns with countering India’s Cold Start Doctrine but simultaneously raises the risk of nuclear escalation during conflicts.
Emerging Capabilities: Sea-Based Systems
Pakistan is also reportedly pursuing the development of sea-based nuclear delivery systems, including submarines, to ensure a second-strike capability. This mirrors India’s creation of a nuclear triad and reflects the intensifying arms race in the region. Pakistan perceives the U.S.India strategic partnership, including arms deals and intelligence sharing, as a direct threat to its security, viewing these developments as efforts to isolate Pakistan geopolitically while bolstering India’s conventional and nuclear capabilities.
International Concerns Regarding Pakistan’s Strategy
Pakistan’s advancements, particularly in missile technology and tactical nuclear weapons, have raised alarms about nuclear proliferation. The international community is concerned that these developments could destabilize the region and spark an arms race with India.
Sanctions and Global Reactions
The United States recently imposed sanctions on four Pakistani state-owned entities accused of aiding missile development, including the National Défense Complex, Pakistan’s missile
production facility (Yousaf, 2024). These sanctions underscore growing concerns about Pakistan’s long-range ballistic missile program. The U.S. State Department described this action as a response to the “continuing proliferation threat posed by Pakistan’s missile development.” U.S. Deputy National Security Advisor Jon Finer stated that if such trends continue, “Pakistan will have the capability to strike targets well beyond South Asia, including in the United States” (Jeffery, 2025).
Proliferation Risks and Escalation Concerns
Finer’s statement marked the first time a U.S. official explicitly labeled Pakistan’s ballistic missiles as a potential threat to the United States. One reason for these concerns is the lack of transparency in Pakistan’s nuclear program, which operates with limited openness, exacerbating fears about the country’s intentions and the potential misuse of its nuclear technology. Critics argue that the lack of transparency makes it more difficult for the international community to maintain regional stability.
The deployment of tactical nuclear weapons and long-range missiles also increases the likelihood of miscalculations during conflicts. Tactical nuclear weapons blur the line between conventional and nuclear warfare, raising the risk of escalation in a region already marked by tension. Additionally, Pakistan’s nuclear advancements challenge global non-proliferation efforts, led by organizations such as the IAEA, as these developments could encourage other countries to enhance their nuclear capabilities, undermining international treaties and norms.
A New Era of Deterrence
Pakistan’s nuclear strategy has undergone a significant transformation, driven by shifting security dynamics in the region and its concerns about India’s growing military power. This transformation has wide-ranging implications for both regional stability and global nonproliferation efforts.
Pakistan’s Perspective
From Pakistan’s perspective, its nuclear arsenal acts as a deterrent against India’s conventional military superiority.
Minimum Credible Deterrence: The Doctrine Explained
The cornerstone of Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine is the concept of Minimum Credible Deterrence, which focuses on maintaining a minimal yet effective nuclear capability to counterbalance India’s conventional military strength. Pakistan’s nuclear strategy is also shaped by regional security threats, such as terrorism, extremism, and external interference (International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2020).
The Kashmir dispute remains a significant concern for Pakistan, which seeks to prevent Indian aggression in the region. In response to India’s nuclear modernization efforts, Pakistan has expanded its nuclear arsenal, developed new delivery systems, and refined its nuclear doctrine. Pakistan maintains that its nuclear deterrent has prevented India from launching a full-scale war, thus preserving regional stability (Krepon, 2017).
Tactical Nuclear Weapons and Regional Stability
Pakistan’s nuclear strategy is further shaped by its goal to maintain strategic parity with India, ensuring that its nuclear capabilities are sufficient to deter any Indian aggression (International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2020). This strategy is based on the principle of deterrence by denial, which aims to prevent India from achieving its military objectives. The country has also taken significant measures to safeguard its nuclear assets from theft or diversion, although concerns about insider threats and the potential for nuclear materials to fall into the wrong hands persist.
Implications for Regional Security
The shift in Pakistan’s nuclear strategy has profound implications for regional security. The ongoing nuclear arms race between India and Pakistan exacerbates their rivalry, heightening tensions and increasing the risk of conflict (Cohen, 2013). The presence of nuclear weapons further complicates the situation, as any conflict between these two countries could potentially escalate into a nuclear war.
Afghanistan and Central Asia: Shaping the Future
The situation in Afghanistan and Central Asia remains a concern, with Pakistan striving to maintain its influence in these regions. The evolution of Pakistan’s nuclear strategy raises additional fears of nuclear proliferation, as other nations in the region may feel compelled to develop their nuclear capabilities in response. Moreover, the increasing emphasis on tactical nuclear weapons introduces further risks of nuclear conflict, as these weapons are designed for
use on the battlefield (Khan, 2018). Global non-proliferation efforts are also affected, as Pakistan’s nuclear program heightens concerns over the spread of nuclear technology.
Securing Nuclear Assets and Deterrence
Pakistan’s nuclear infrastructure is spread across several facilities, including the research, development, production, and storage sites, which makes securing these assets a challenging task. The country’s nuclear doctrine, focused on Minimum Credible Deterrence, aims to counter India’s conventional military dominance while adhering to the principle of deterrence by denial (International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2020).
Conclusion
In conclusion, Pakistan’s shift in nuclear strategy reflects its evolving security concerns and its determination to maintain a credible deterrent against India’s conventional military superiority. While this transformation has significant implications for regional security, it is crucial to recognize the complexities of the issue. A nuanced approach-incorporating dialogue, confidence-building measures, and non-proliferation initiatives, remains essential in addressing these concerns. Diplomatic efforts aimed at reducing tensions between India and Pakistan, along with regional and international cooperation on non-proliferation and disarmament, are vital to fostering regional stability and security.
Glossary
- KANUPP-1: Karachi Nuclear Power Plant Unit-1, Pakistan’s first nuclear power reactor, commissioned in the 1970s with Canadian assistance.
- Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs): Missiles designed for long-range strikes, typically able to travel thousands of kilometers and carry nuclear warheads.
- Tactical Nuclear Weapons (TNWs): Smaller, short-range nuclear weapons intended for use on the battlefield, as opposed to strategic nuclear weapons targeting cities or large-scale infrastructure.
- Minimum Credible Deterrence: Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine focuses on maintaining a sufficient nuclear arsenal to deter nuclear or conventional attacks from more powerful adversaries, particularly India.
- Cold Start Doctrine: India’s military strategy that involves the rapid mobilization of forces for a limited conventional war, designed to prevent Pakistan from using nuclear weapons in response to smaller-scale military actions.
- Nuclear Triad: A military structure in which a nation can launch nuclear weapons from land-based missiles, submarines, and strategic bombers, providing a second- strike capability in case of a nuclear attack.
- Second-Strike Capability: The ability of a country to retaliate with a nuclear response after absorbing a nuclear first strike, ensuring deterrence against potential isotopic aggression.
Acknowledgement
Source: Securing Pakistan’s Nuclear Weapons Complex
Other References:
- Cohen, S. P. (2013). Shooting for a Century: The India-Pakistan Conundrum. Brookings Institution Press.
- International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). (2020). Nuclear Deterrence and Stability in South Asia.
Nuclear deterrence and stability in South Asia: perceptions and realities
- Jaffery, S. A. Z. (2025, January 8). Why US sanctions against Pakistan’s ballistic missile program might backfire, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. https://thebulletin.org/2025/01/why–us–sanctions–against–pakistans–ballistic–missileprogram–
- Khan, F. H. (2018). Eating Grass: The Making of the Pakistani Bomb. Stanford University Press.
Eating Grass | Stanford University Press
- Krepon, M. (2017). “Pakistan’s Nuclear Strategy.” In M. Krepon & J. Thompson (Eds.), Nuclear Risk Reduction in South Asia (pp. 15-30). Stimson Centre.
Krepon_-_Pakistan_Nuclear_Strategy_and_Deterrence_Stability.pdf
- Landay, J. (2024, December 19). Pakistan developing missiles that eventually could hit the U.S., a top U.S. official says. Reuters.
https://www.reuters.com/world/pakistan-developing-missiles-that-eventually-couldhit-us-top-
us–official–says–2024–12–19/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
- Yousaf, K. (2024, December 19). US sanctions four Pakistan entities. The Express Tribune.
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2517005/us-sanctions-four-pakistan-entities
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