Power Transition Theory
Power Transition Theory in international relations focuses on the shifting nature of global power and the prospect of conflict. This theory was proposed by A.F.K. Organski. PTT elucidates that ordered international system exists with the hegemon state and other lower-classified states based on their power spectrum. It predicts the instability and violence in the international system during the distribution of power. This happens when a rising power challenges the hegemon state.
Its assumptions comprise hierarchical international system with a hegemon state and other states based on power dynamics including military, economic, political, and technological capacities. The stability and instability of the hierarchical international system depend on the satisfaction and dissatisfaction of the rising power with the present world order. Dissatisfaction brings a challenge for the hegemon state. When a rising power has the potential to overrun the hegemon state then the international system seeks the most perilous period for global conflict.
Applicability of PTT on US-China Strategic Competition
Power Transition Theory helps us to analyze the dynamics and predict the outcomes of the US-China strategic relationship. US has held the position of Hegemon state since the end of World War II. Influence on international organizations such as the United Nations, institutions, and security forums mark the status of the US in the international political structure. China due to immense economic boom, military, and technological developments emerged as the challenger to US hegemony. It is estimated that China with $33.7 trillion will surpass the US as the potential economic state, compared to $30.5 trillion by 2030.
Modernization in cyber, naval, and missile system capabilities proposes strategic competition to the US. BRI and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, highlight the aspirations of China to redefine strategic dynamics that would be in China’s interests. This shows the dissatisfaction of China with the current global order. John Mearsheimer highlights that China will rise continuously and follow the prior hegemons to become a real hegemon.
The distribution of power in the international system follows the potential conflict between the rising power and the hegemon state. US-China strategic competition is reflected in Thucydides’ trap where gameplay of replacing positions leads to a conflict. In the case of China, the clash of strategic interests is pertinent specifically in the South China Sea, Taiwan, and cyber domain. This could escalate the conflict with miscalculation into drastic conflict.
Economic Dimension
In today’s era, the economy decides the fate of states in the international system. US-China strategic competition impacts greatly on the global economic dynamics. This aims to seek the analysis of trade policies and tariffs of the US-China, and their impacts on both states.
Trade Policies of the US
Firstly, the US adopted the policy of protectionism due to trade deficits, to enhance exports while reducing imports. Secondly, US barred the Chinese goods worth hundreds of billions of dollars by the imposition of tariffs. The allegations were cited as illicit trade actions by China. The aim was to protect the American interests such as companies and workers. Lastly, the US stepped forward to immune its economic partnerships by signing agreements like the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement to ensure free and transparent trade.
Trade Policies of China
China depends on exports as an economic policy while financing infrastructural and technological departments for the growth of exports. China initiated BRI to expand its economic influence across different regions. China, by maintaining a trade surplus with the US, moved towards the imposition of its indigenous tariffs and non-tariff obstacles to counter US actions and protect industries.
Impact of Tariffs
By keeping in view, the impacts of tariffs on economies, prices of the commodities for the consumers got increased by US taxes as import finances were transferred to customers. Domestic industries got benefits as foreign competition was reduced. During Trump’s regime, technology exports were banned to compete with China as Huawei, the leading Technology Corporation of China, relies profoundly on US technologies.
The agricultural sector has been facing a critical time as they are at a loss due to Chinese tariffs on American agricultural commodities. For China, heavy taxes have led to the high cost of Chinese exports and reduced the competition in the US market. That is why China is relying more on other countries in different regions to create its economic influence. China’s domestic market has improved to a great extent while some faced difficulties in getting access to the US market.
Global Supply Chain
The tariff cyclone has impacted global supply chains and urged companies to revise their supply chain strategies. Some companies shifted to other states just to avoid these tariffs. Both states are reducing economic reliance on each other which is known as economic decoupling and seeking other countries as trade brothers.
Technological Rivalry
The competition for technological power is in full swing between the US and China. The US with the co-partnership of private high technological companies such as Apple, Microsoft, and Google have brought innovation in the world. As of now, China’s government has initiated “Made in China 2025” to become the leader in the technology sector. This is significant for the critical elements of technology such as semiconductors, AI, and 5G. China is highly dependent on its indigenous technological abilities.
Both states view cyber security as an important factor for national security as several cyber-attacks have happened with the allegations that those were state-sponsored. For instance, the OPM data breach incident in the US signifies the crucial role of cyber security in protecting national integrity. They put allegations on China’s sponsored actors for this breach. So, these cyber advancements give an advantage to overrun the technological spectrum without any confrontation.
Military Dimension
The military capabilities of both states signify the complex relationship in different regions. The US congressional office proposed a defense budget of $842 billion for 2024 and China will spend $231.36 billion with the highest spike of 7.1 percent as the second largest defense spender.
The US holds a significant dominance in the military domain. It broadens its capabilities by enhancing military budgets and acquiring modern technology. It signed various defense pacts, such as NATO, and different strategic partnerships like the Indo-US Strategic Partnership to bolster its Indo-Pacific strategy to counter China in the Indian Ocean. While People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has been modernized by focusing on the attainment of hypersonic missiles, cyber warfare resources, and Anti-satellite technology. China focuses on its defensive strategy regarding regional dominance in the South China Sea and Taiwan to mitigate the threat of US intervention.
The US prefers the exposition of power to create its influence in different regions. Indo-Pacific region gets emphasis due to the “Pivot to Asia” strategy to confront China in Asia. In this way, the US made alliances with Japan, South Korea, Australia, and India such as AUKUS, and QUAD.
Anti-access/area denial
China prioritizes an Anti-Access/ Area Denial (A2/AD) strategy for restricting adversaries’ free movement near its borders. This strategy marks the inclusion of missile systems in the Western Pacific that can counter the US aircraft carriers and bases. China is also influencing through infrastructural initiatives and military bases specifically in the South China Sea.
The possible outcome of the security dilemma is prevalent in this competition. Both states are acquiring new technologies such as AI, cyber sources, and space-dominant capabilities for a first-mover advantage. China is advancing towards the expansion of nuclear capabilities and conventional forces to deter the US. China is reducing the gap of defense innovators of the US by relying more on defense technology such as drones, hypersonic missiles, and quantum. Both the states are revolutionizing their military capabilities in the light of AI and seeking a balance of power shift.
Regional and Global Security
This competition has impacted the Indo-Pacific region due to strategic interests. US stance on independent navigation operations is challenging for China regarding territorial claims of China. The threat of confrontation is rising due to the continuous military exercises of China near Taiwan. This competition is influencing global security and the US wants to maintain its hegemony while China seeks the restructuring of political order.
Diplomatic and Soft Power Strategies
The US and China have employed different diplomatic and soft power strategies for the attainment of their interests and to create influence in different regions.
Quadrilateral Security Dialogue
The US favored the alliance and partnership system to garner support and bolster its dominance in different regions specifically in the Indo-Pacific to counter China by forming alliances with India, Australia, Japan, and South Korea. The US is also an active member of the UN, IMF, and WTO to keep influence on the financial support mechanism. Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) was initiated by the US to focus on security and economic cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region. Strategies include trade agreements, and sanctions tools to influence other states in the region. The promotion of American culture through Hollywood, Music, and International Scholarships are included in soft power strategies. American channels through their global reach influence the opinion of the international community such as CNN, and The New York Times. Global tactics of US regarding the global terrorism, diplomacy, climate change, and poverty are included in the strategy of the US to create its influence.
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership
China employed different diplomatic and soft power strategies to counterbalance the US. China initiated BRI to create its influence across Asia, Africa, and Europe through trade and economic enhancement. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) allows China to create influence in the Asia Pacific region. China has extended its hands of interests to Russia, Pakistan, and Iran to counter the US in critical regions. China provided vaccines and aid to third-world countries during the Covid-19, by knowing the fact of the influence of soft power strategies. China’s international reach is limited due to the state-controlled media and censorship factor and struggles to compete with the US in terms of outreach. Now, China is exploring the trends through its channels like China Daily, and Xinhua by spreading the perspective of China to run in the race with the US in the game of perspectives.
Conclusion
The strategic competition between China and the US has greatly impacted the global power dynamics through different dimensions. Developing countries are in a state of extreme conundrum that which bloc should join in this competition as it would have an ultimate effect on their economic or trade relationships. This strategic rivalry is reshaping the international political order through different strategies by both states such as diplomatic and soft power strategies without any confrontation.
The game of interests has strong and far-reaching impacts on global peace and stability. This Power Transition Theory best fits to create a framework for deciphering the dynamics and outcomes of this strategic competition between the US and China. PTT sheds light on the power shift in the global dynamics specifically by highlighting the role of China in this whole scenario. This explains how China’s excessive reliance on economic, military, and technological capabilities poses a challenge to the US hegemony and a rise of potential conflict. The central idea for PTT serves as the crucial source for understanding the nature and dynamics of the US-China relationship.
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