Melting Arctic threat to the region| Research Paper| 22-july-2024
Introduction
The world today is developing in all spheres and with this rapid evolution, the nature of security risks is also modified. Previously, the ideas of security threats were often associated only with military conflicts or state-to-state clashes but now it is seen that other factors are also threatening the security of states. The world is observing potential threats from climate change resulting in catastrophes all around the world in the form of floods, global warming, ocean acidification, and other extreme weather events. Arctic Melting is also one of the implications of Climate change and it is continuously affecting not only its surrounding states but also the overall global states. Moreover, the states Canada and Russia share long boundaries with the region of arctic which is impacting them. The melting of Arctic is posing potential security threats to Canada and Russia including imminent environmental, geopolitical, and economic challenges.
The need for raising problems that interplay between environment and security is growing day by day as most studies show that lately humans are affected badly due to problems and disasters other than war[i]. Therefore, arctic melting is becoming a topic of concern in the fields of climate change and security studies. Many scholars have given significant research about emerging security threats due to arctic melting making it a burning topic of discussion. The emerging problems regarding security demand a deep dive into the expanded agenda of security explaining such concerns. This study is constructed in a way that aims to examine the security threats from arctic melting with a theoretical basis, basic concepts of climate change and arctic melting, impacts of arctic melting on arctic states, and its impact on Canada and Russia specifically.
Theoretical Framework
Theory acts as the basis of any research as it provides a specific lens through which the reader can interpret the purpose of the research paper. The structure of the paper is well organized and the concepts are linked better. In this way, the theoretical framework makes it easy to understand the idea that is under examination by the researcher. The impacts of Arctic melting on the states in raising their security concerns are best explained under the Copenhagen School of thought in security studies. The scholars who are associated with this school of thought are Barry Buzan, Ole Waever, and Jaap de Wilde[ii]. Barry Buzan under this school of thought in his book “People, States, and Fear” has broadened and widened the agenda of security[iii]. The Copenhagen School focuses more on the non-military aspects of security rather than the traditional ones. The securitization of climate change is done under this school of thought which makes it a potential threat[iv].
Climate change as a security concern
The theoretical framework that is used emphasizes the theories of security studies particularly the Copenhagen School of security with the idea of climate change as a security concern and footprints of arctic security are also seen. As Arctic melting is an implication of climate change it is best explained through the lens of the Copenhagen school of thought which emphasizes the interplay of five sectors namely military, societal, economic, and environmental. In the 1980s when environmental issues like ozone depletion and global warming became a topic of concern, environmental security was taken into account by many scholars[v]. Later, many factors contributed to the broadening of traditional security domains into wide agendas for addressing such security concerns on every level. This school explains how one security threat ultimately makes another threat and how the five sectors are intermixed. Ultimately, the problem of Arctic melting and its adverse effects are studied as security threats under the interaction of five sectors of the Copenhagen school of thought[vi].
Understanding Climate Change and Arctic Melting
The Earth is experiencing long-term changes in its atmospheric conditions like the temperature or the precipitation this is called climate change[vii]. It is particularly increased due to human activities and showing adverse effects in the form of many catastrophes. Moreover, climate change is causing significant changes in the global security landscape[viii]. Not only the environment is affected but also the economic, societal, and political implications are observed. The relationship between climate change and security is multilayered causing complexity in understanding it. Climate change is instigating multiple security threats all around the world including resource scarcity such as water and food leading to conflict over resources, migration, and displacement due to extreme weather events or famines and droughts undermining human security, and increase in vulnerability of coastal areas including the Arctic that is the main topic of discussion in this study.
Impact of Geopolitical tensions
The northernmost polar region of the earth is known as the Arctic[ix]. In this region, the Arctic Ocean is present and it touches several states’ borders. For the past few decades, the ice present in the ocean of Arctic Ocean has been experiencing rapid melting due to climate change[x]. It is observed to be melting at a rate twice that of global temperature. This melting of the Arctic is posing significant implications for the world. It is contributing to rising sea levels and temperature, heat waves, tsunamis, changes in sea routes, and raising conflict over resource competition in the Arctic. Geopolitical tensions are increasing between states over territorial claims and military presence is increased in the region to protect their interests. For instance, Arctic Melting is changing weather patterns even in Asia as Pakistan experienced drastic floods in 2022[xi]. In addition, the glaciers in the Himalayas are observed to be affected by the melting of arctic ice. Moreover, developing countries like China are expanding their trade routes, and these routes are already contested so shortly they would need alternative trade routes which could be the Arctic region.
Impact of Arctic Melting on Arctic States
There is an imaginary equator line that encircles the Arctic region consisting of Arctic Ocean and states. It is called the Arctic Circle. There are eight Arctic states surrounding the Arctic Ocean namely Canada, Russia, the Kingdom of Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, and the United States of America. The arctic states are considering the melting of ice as a challenge and they have begun to settle their military in the region for not only resource hunting but also to make territorial claims. The winds of geopolitical tensions between states are already observed due to which the Arctic states are making policy statements about ensuring a security environment in the Arctic[xii]. Moreover, the United States is seen to be vigilant in seeking interest in the region of the Arctic by militarization which is triggering a security dilemma between Russia and the US in the region. The environmental security of arctic states is affected by arctic melting undermining economic security which eventually endangers societal security.
Role of Arctic Council
The indigenous communities in the Arctic region depend upon the resources there for example they rely on the water supplies stored in glaciers and when this supply is limited due to Arctic melting the availability of water will be reduced and ultimately migration will be observed by such communities[xiii]. Eventually, the water quality would also be affected causing it to be polluted due to higher temperatures. Migration is a problem that could lead to conflict and thus challenges human security in the region to a great extent. In addition, the eight Arctic countries are making claims on most of Arctic region creating risks for potential conflicts. The Arctic Council is making efforts to encounter this through agreements and policy statements. It is observed that Denmark and the US are the closest Arctic policy allies. They cooperate in shaping policies regarding the Arctic and this also creates a kind of competitive environment among Arctic states. on the other hand, Norway is also active in the region which is becoming a threat to its security as Russia deters Norway, NATO, and the US not to be part of the Ukraine-Russia war otherwise it can claim Norwegian territory in the Arctic[xiv].
Impact on the Security of Canada and Russia
Canada and Russia both share the longest borders with Arctic region than any of the other Arctic States. That is why both states have several impacts of Arctic melting. Canada shares a coastline of about 162000 km with the Arctic[xv]. Recent research has concluded that human security is challenged in the arctic northern part of Canada in the form of health issues, unpredictable weather patterns, and snowfalls, significant water changes (which may contain different pathogens), an increase in contaminants in the environment, and dangerous diseases due to ozone depletion. Moreover, the melting of the Arctic is raising the temperature causing erosion in soil which ultimately damages infrastructure in northern Canada on a very large-scale including bridges, roads, houses sewage systems, and pipelines[xvi]. This leads to economic insecurity along with human insecurity showing the interplay of different sectors of security.
Threat for Canada
Canada has experienced devastating wildfires in the past that undermined environmental security and posed economic challenges as well. Scientists have proved that burned forest peat when dissolves in water make it polluted and affect the living beings on land and in water as well and Canada is being exposed to this due to Arctic melting. The broad border of Canada with the Arctic is becoming vulnerable to smuggling, terrorism, and illegal shipping from time to time due to the melting of ice. Also, there is a huge risk of accidents in maritime traffic like oil spilling due to environmental changes. In addition, Canada is engaging in competition with other states for example China in the region of Arctic due to the presence of military and territorial claims. it is obvious that Canada also wants to pursue its interests and get benefits from Arctic but it has a series of significant security threats from the Arctic in ecological, military, economic, and societal domains.
Implications for Russia
Russia has a coastline of about 24140 kilometers with the Arctic[xvii]. Russia has planted its flag in the territories of the Arctic. Russia’s territory in the Arctic is considered to be the coldest after Antarctica on the planet. But this temperature is rising rapidly due to arctic melting and making this huge coastline of Russia vulnerable to many security threats including terror attacks and smuggling. This large part of Russia was protected by external forces due to harsh cold weather but now Russia needs to militarize it as it is becoming a threat. This process will cost Russia a lot and may cause distraction from other projects. For instance, the presence of the US in Arctic is becoming a threat to Russia. In addition, Russia has a lifelong water dispute with Norway in Barents Sea of arctic region and as ice is melting tensions are rising on this. Moreover, Russia is trying its best to gain control over the seabed of arctic for natural resources there as its reliance on hydrocarbons for energy its economic security in under great threat due to arctic melting. Russia is under environmental threat from arctic melting in form of floods and tsunamis that can hit the coastal areas causing huge catastrophes and challenging human security.
Conclusion
The phenomenon of Arctic Melting is not an imaginary problem that was once portrayed in movies but it is now posing serious security threats to states and continents. It is predicted that Arctic would experience ice-free summers by 2030s opening a bunch of new problems for mankind. The most affected states by this phenomenon are eight Arctic states. out of these eight states, Canada and Russia share the longer coastline in Arctic Ocean and are affected by even the slightest activities in the region. These states are facing several security threats and are struggling to maintain their security due to Arctic melting. There are policy statements and agreements observed to maintain Arctic security but they are not enough. All in all, there are shadows of thousands of forthcoming hazardous threats casting on the states of Canada and Russia due to Arctic melting but none of them is seen to be actively prepared for it although One fact is clear that the Arctic is melting at a very fast rate.
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Citations
[i] “Climate Wars,” Google Books, 2015, https://books.google.com.pk/books?hl=en&lr=&id=eGGxBgAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PP1&dq=+the+humans+are+killed+more+due+to+environmental+issues+than+wars&ots.
[ii] “CRITICAL SECURITY STUDIES, between INNOVATION and SHORTCOMINGS COPENHAGEN, ABERYSTWYTH and PARIS SCHOOLS of SECURITY STUDIES, REVISITED – ProQuest,” Proquest.com, 2019.
[iii] Asiimwe Bosco, “THE DOMESTICATION of ‘SOCIETAL SECURITY’ of the COPENHAGEN SCHOOL: AFRICA in FOCUS,” 2019, https://thecfma.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Societal-Security-the-Copenhagen-School_Assimwe-2019.pdf.
[iv] Warner, Ingrid, “Securitization of Climate Change: How Invoking Global Dangers for Instrumental Ends Can Backfire – Jeroen Warner, Ingrid Boas, 2019,” Environment and Planning C: Politics and Space, 2019, https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/2399654419834018.
[v] “Environmental Security and Climate Change: Analysing the Discourse,” Cambridge Review of International Affairs, 2020, https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09557570802452920.
[vi] Ásdís Björk Gunnarsdóttir 1993, “Climate Change in Iceland: A Threat to Security or a World of Potential?,” Skemman.is, 2022, https://skemman.is/handle/1946/43787.
[vii] United Nations, “What Is Climate Change? | United Nations,” United Nations (United Nations, 2023), https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/what-is-climate-change.
[viii] Martha Christino, “Climate Change and Global Security,” American Security Project, 2023, https://www.americansecurityproject.org/climate-energy-and-security/new-climate-change-website-3-climate-change-and-global-security/.
[ix] “Arctic,” Nationalgeographic.org, 2016, https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/arctic.
[x] Takashi Yamanouchi and Kumiko Takata, “Rapid Change of the Arctic Climate System and Its Global Influences – Overview of GRENE Arctic Climate Change Research Project (2011–2016),” Polar Science 25 (September 1, 2020): 100548–48, doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polar.2020.100548.
[xi] Dr. Najaf Ali et al., “Climate Change in Pakistan and Its Resilience Efforts,” Al-Qanṭara 9, no. 4 (2023), https://alqantarajournal.com/index.php/Journal/article/view/392.
[xii] “Climate Change & International Security: The Arctic as a Bellwether,” Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, February 4, 2020, https://www.c2es.org/document/climate-change.
[xiii] Super User, “Security,” Arctic Portal, 2024, https://arcticportal.org/climate-change-and-sea-ice-portlet/effects/security.
[xiv] “A Battle for the Arctic Is Underway. And the U.S. Is Already Behind.,” POLITICO, December 17, 2022, https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/12/17/climate-change.
[xv] “Canadian Arctic Sovereignty,” Thecanadianencyclopedia.ca, 2022, https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/arctic-sovereignty.
[xvi] “Scientists Warn of Rising Oceans from Polar Melt (Published 2014),” The New York Times, 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/13/science/earth/collapse-of-parts-of-west-antarctica-ice-sheet-has-begun-scientists-say.html?_r=0.
[xvii] The Arctic Institute, “Russia,” The Arctic Institute – Center for Circumpolar Security Studies (The Arctic Institute – Center for Circumpolar Security Studies, May 14, 2016), https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/country-backgrounders/russia/.
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