AUKUS | Op-ed | 22-july-2024
AUKUS
AUKUS is a trilateral strategic partnership between Australia, the UK, and the US announced in September 2021. It is a semi-formal alliance without a charter and functional architecture. The alliance is a renewal of traditional alliance among the members to ensure global prosperity, stability, and security—particularly in the Pacific Ocean.
Salient features of this alliance are the acquisition and development of conventionally armed nuclear-powered submarines for the Royal Australian Navy and sharing of technology and information for collaboration on advanced capabilities. So far, the members have agreed to create a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines for Australia using UK’s cutting-edge technology.
These submarines would enter service by late 2030s and Australia would produce them domestically by early 2040s. In the meantime, the US would sell 3-5 submarines to Australia in the early 2030s and it would deploy its own nuclear-powered submarines in the region along with that of the UK as part of “Submarine Rotational Force-West” by 2027. These submarines would cost Australia up to 368 billion dollars. Previously the AUKUS was not open for expansion but in June 2023 Kurt Campbell, the deputy assistant to the US president and coordinator for the Indo-Pacific, said that the US is open to expanding AUKUS on the technological side, provided the interested candidates bring meaningful technological contributions.
Pakistan has bilateral trade and diplomatic relations with the AUKUS countries with a significant amount of people-to-people linkages. Pakistan does not have geographical proximity with these states but it is part of the broader Indo-Pacific strategy and shares a 1046km long coastline with the Indian Ocean. Although Australia does not have a history of military aggression and territorial annexations, yet, its participation in the AUKUS has shifted the strategic balance in the Indo-Pacific region.
Australia claims that its acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines would not nuclearize the Indo-Pacific as other states like the US, China, and India have already deployed nuclear-powered submarines in the Indo-Pacific.
Implications of AUKUS
Security Concerns: The AUKUS alliance’s focus on maritime security and technological advancements, particularly in the realm of submarines, may affect Pakistan’s security dynamics in the Indian Ocean. It could potentially increase surveillance and intelligence-sharing activities in the region which would make Pakistan’s naval capabilities and vulnerabilities more transparent.
Diplomatic Relations: Pakistan may need to reassess its diplomatic relationships, particularly with China, which has its own strategic interests in the region. AUKUS could further solidify the alignment between the US, UK, and Australia, potentially influencing Pakistan’s foreign policy choices.
Arms Race Concerns: The development of advanced military technology, such as nuclear-powered submarines, by the AUKUS countries might exacerbate regional arms race concerns. Pakistan may feel compelled to bolster its own defense capabilities in response, leading to increased military spending and strategic competition.
Indian Sea Based Nuclear Forces
The Indian Navy (IN) is the fifth largest in the world. In the recent years, India has undertaken a rapid modernization of its navy in a drive to develop blue-water capabilities and increase its prowess in the Indian Ocean and beyond. This is also part of India’s grand strategy to attain regional and global power status. India’s sea-based nuclear forces have evolved significantly in recent years, primarily with the development and deployment of indigenous nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). Here’s a more detailed overview:
INS Arihant
INS Arihant is India’s first indigenously developed SSBN, commissioned in 2016.It is powered by a pressurized water reactor (PWR) and armed with K-15 (code-named B05) and K-4 SLBMs. K-15 SLBM: It has a range of around 750 kilometres and is primarily intended for tactical nuclear deterrence. K-4 SLBM: With a range of approximately 3,500 kilometres, the K-4 provides India with a credible second-strike capability, capable of reaching targets deep within China or Pakistan.
Following the success of INS Arihant, India is developing more advanced SSBNs, such as the INS Arihant. INS Arihant is expected to carry more advanced SLBMs and further enhance India’s sea-based nuclear deterrent capabilities. India has plans for a fleet of at least four SSBNs, ensuring a continuous at-sea deterrent posture.
India’s sea-based nuclear forces are integral to its nuclear doctrine of credible minimum deterrence. These forces are designed to provide a survivable second-strike capability, ensuring that India can retaliate effectively in the event of a nuclear attack, even if its land-based nuclear assets are compromised. SSBNs operate in a highly secretive manner, patrolling undetected beneath the ocean’s surface, making them difficult to track and target.
The development of sea-based nuclear forces enhances India’s overall nuclear deterrence posture, adding depth and resilience to its nuclear triad, which also includes land-based ballistic missiles and aircraft. It strengthens India’s ability to deter potential adversaries by increasing the cost and uncertainty associated with any hostile action. India’s sea-based nuclear forces contribute to regional stability by promoting deterrence and reducing the likelihood of nuclear conflict through credible deterrence.
India’s motivation is to build a blue-water navy and a formidable force in the Indian Ocean and beyond is motivated by India’s dream to emerge as a global power. This naval build-up is also a result of a closer strategic alignment with the US and its allies to counter China’s rising power. The build-up is especially aimed at deterring China from establishing a foothold in the Indian Ocean. Having a formidable naval capability also means that India can be a regional hegemon in the Indian Ocean, as well as the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal.
This is a threat to all the littoral states of the Indian Ocean since India can deny access to the ocean’s resources, communication and free movement at will. However, the greatest worry is that India is all set to nuclearize the Indian Ocean. This is a threat to all the littoral states but especially for Pakistan. For Pakistan, which aims to maintain an effective nuclear deterrent against India, the introduction of its nuclear triad is a threatening development, which further exacerbates its security dilemma vis-à-vis India.
The Indian naval nuclear developments will qualitatively alter the strategic balance between India and Pakistan. It would force Pakistan to also introduce a naval-nuclear capability of its own to rebalance the deterrence equation between the two countries. This would only start a pointless arms race in the Indian Ocean as well.
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